Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kent v Surrey

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

38%

62%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kent (Local)

Prediction 38.35%2.61fair odd

EV -2.21%

Edge -0.867%

Kelly -1.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.35%38.68%38.02%41.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.232.402.382.5544.84%41.60%42.11%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Surrey (Visit)

Prediction 61.65%1.62fair odd

EV -2.59%

Edge -1.64%

Kelly -4.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.53%61.32%61.98%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.551.561.5866.67%64.56%64.10%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
NordicBet	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.21%E -0.867%K -1.43%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.29%E -4.14%K -12.10%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-10 17:20
Betsson	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.21%E -0.867%K -1.43%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.29%E -4.14%K -12.10%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-10 17:20
888sport	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.13%E -1.65%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.67%E -3.71%K -10.71%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 17:04
betfred_uk	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.13%E -1.65%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.67%E -3.71%K -10.71%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 17:04
William Hill	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.13%E -1.65%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.67%E -3.71%K -10.71%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 22:59
BoyleSports	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.13%E -1.65%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.67%E -3.71%K -10.71%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 10:39
TAB	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.13%E -1.65%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.29%E -4.14%K -12.10%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 17:24
Bet Victor	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.13%E -1.65%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.52%E -5.02%K -15.05%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-10 17:18
Betr (AU)	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.05%E -2.47%K -4.17%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.52%E -5.02%K -15.05%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-07-10 17:04
Pinnacle	2.44I 40.98%NM 38.07%EV -6.43%E -2.63%K -4.46%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.93%EV -7.52%E -5.02%K -15.05%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-10 17:25
SportsBet	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.89%EV -7.20%E -2.97%K -5.07%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.11%EV -5.06%E -3.28%K -9.37%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 17:24
Unibet (UK)	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.96%E -3.32%K -5.69%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 17:24
Sky Bet	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.73%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-08 21:04
Paddy Power	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.73%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-08 21:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.73%E -3.67%K -6.33%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-07-08 21:25
Coral	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -9.11%E -3.85%K -6.65%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-08 21:00
Ladbrokes (UK)	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -9.11%E -3.85%K -6.65%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-07-08 21:00
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:09
Neds	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-10 17:09
Virgin Bet	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-09 12:50
LiveScore Bet	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-09 12:50
Unibet	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.21%E -2.04%K -5.63%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-07-09 12:49
Unibet (SE)	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-09 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-09 12:50
Grosvenor	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-09 12:50
Casumo	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-09 12:49
TABtouch	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-09 12:49
ATG (SE)	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -3.82%E -2.45%K -6.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-07-09 12:50
Betway	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.88%E -4.20%K -7.32%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.44%E -2.87%K -8.07%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-10 17:25
Marathon Bet	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -14.48%E -6.49%K -11.77%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -2.59%E -1.64%K -4.47%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-10 16:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%	1.0%	2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%	1.0%	2026-07-10 17:25
Matchbook	2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90%	1.0%	2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.58I 38.76%NM 38.28%	1.60I 62.50%NM 61.72%	1.3%	2026-07-10 17:25
Smarkets	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%	4.3%	2026-07-10 17:25