Language:English
Gloucestershire v Surrey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gloucestershire (Local)
Prediction 36.32%2.75fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.89%36.20%36.43%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.632.6540.00%38.28%38.10%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Surrey (Visit)
Prediction 63.68%1.57fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -8.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%63.80%63.57%65.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.481.5070.42%67.63%67.57%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gloucestershire (Local): 36.32%; Surrey (Visit): 63.68%. For Gloucestershire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -3.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.75%E -3.89%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.75%E -3.89%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.57%E -6.74%K -22.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-04 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.48%E -1.70%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.48%E -1.70%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -4.48%E -1.70%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -6.39%E -4.35%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.84%E -1.85%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 17:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.84%E -1.85%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-03 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.84%E -1.85%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-03 20:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.84%E -1.85%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 12:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.75%E -3.89%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.75%E -3.89%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 06:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.66%E -5.29%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.57%E -2.14%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.30%E -5.76%K -18.87%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 17:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.09%EV -8.84%E -3.52%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.91%EV -5.75%E -3.89%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-02 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.48%E -2.99%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -9.20%E -3.68%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -7.66%E -5.29%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-03 20:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.66% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.34% | 1.6% | 2026-07-04 17:55 |