Language:English
Essex v Middlesex
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Essex (Local)
Prediction 64.73%1.54fair odd
EV -0.968%
Edge -0.633%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.56%64.48%64.63%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.451.5371.43%67.93%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Middlesex (Visit)
Prediction 35.27%2.84fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.686%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%35.52%35.37%38.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.652.8040.82%38.16%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essex (Local): 64.73%; Middlesex (Visit): 35.27%. For Essex (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -0.968%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 08:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -2.26%E -1.50%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-05 13:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.29%E -3.19%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.29%E -3.19%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-05 14:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -5.50%E -3.77%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -11.11%E -4.41%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-05 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.24%E -0.441%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 14:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.24%E -0.441%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 14:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.76%E -1.76%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 14:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.53%E -2.46%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-05 14:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.29%E -3.19%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -4.06%E -1.49%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -1.24%E -0.441%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-05 14:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -4.76%E -1.76%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-05 14:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 0.9% | 2026-07-05 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62% | 1.1% | 2026-07-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97% | 1.7% | 2026-07-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97% | 1.7% | 2026-07-05 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46% | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54% | 3.7% | 2026-07-05 14:55 |
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