The School of Odds

Essex v Middlesex

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Essex (Local)

Prediction 64.73%1.54fair odd
EV -0.968%
Edge -0.633%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.56%64.48%64.63%66.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.471.451.5371%68%69%65%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Middlesex (Visit)

Prediction 35.27%2.84fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.686%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%35.52%35.37%38.44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.622.652.8041%38%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
Casumo1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
Virgin Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
Unibet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
Unibet (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
TABtouch1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:34
Grosvenor1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:34
ATG (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -0.968%E -0.633%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-04 08:35
Pinnacle1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -2.26%E -1.50%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -13.58%E -5.54%K -9.37%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-05 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.29%E -3.19%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 14:40
Neds1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.85%E -3.30%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.29%E -3.19%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 14:39
Marathon Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -5.50%E -3.77%K -11.95%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -11.11%E -4.41%K -7.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 14:55
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.24%E -0.441%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 14:45
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.24%E -0.441%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 14:45
TAB1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.76%E -1.76%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 14:44
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.53%E -2.46%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-05 14:45
Betway1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.29%E -3.19%K -5.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:40
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:39
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:39
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:40
888sport1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:45
betfred_uk1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:45
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.00%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 14:10
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -6.79%E -4.72%K -15.44%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -4.06%E -1.49%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-05 14:40
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -1.24%E -0.441%K -0.686%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-05 14:44
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.38%E -6.70%K -23.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -4.76%E -1.76%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-05 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-07-05 14:55
Matchbook1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-07-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.7%2026-07-05 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.7%2026-07-05 14:55
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.54%3.7%2026-07-05 14:55