Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essex v Hampshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essex (Local)

Prediction 47.74%2.09fair odd

EV +0.246%

Edge +0.117%

Kelly +0.223%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.44%47.43%47.53%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.912.012.002.1052.36%49.86%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hampshire (Visit)

Prediction 52.26%1.91fair odd

EV -0.176%

Edge -0.092%

Kelly -0.193%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.00%52.57%52.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.681.781.801.9159.52%56.19%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
William Hill	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +0.246%E +0.117%K +0.223%G +0.001%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.58%E -5.54%K -13.13%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 22:59
Pinnacle	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV +0.246%E +0.117%K +0.223%G +0.001%	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -12.20%E -7.26%K -17.94%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-10 17:55
Unibet (SE)	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:14
Virgin Bet	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:15
LeoVegas (SE)	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:14
Grosvenor	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:15
LiveScore Bet	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:14
Casumo	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:15
TABtouch	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:14
Unibet	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:15
ATG (SE)	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.06%E -5.21%K -12.24%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-07-10 09:14
Betway	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.14%E -1.04%K -2.04%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -11.15%E -6.56%K -15.93%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-10 17:29
SportsBet	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
Coral	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
Ladbrokes (UK)	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
Sky Bet	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:40
Paddy Power	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:40
888sport	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:44
betfred_uk	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.53%E -2.26%K -4.53%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-07-10 17:40
Unibet (UK)	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.48%E -2.77%K -5.59%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-07-10 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.44%E -3.28%K -6.71%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
Neds	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -6.44%E -3.28%K -6.71%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:49
Betsson	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-10 17:44
NordicBet	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-10 17:44
TAB	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.31%E -1.79%K -3.90%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-10 17:44
Betr (AU)	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-10 17:40
Marathon Bet	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.44%EV -6.91%E -3.55%K -7.28%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -8.02%E -4.55%K -10.55%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-10 17:40
BoyleSports	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.70%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -0.176%E -0.092%K -0.193%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-07-10 17:45
Bet Victor	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.82%E -4.62%K -9.70%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.92%E -3.29%K -7.41%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-07-10 17:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)	2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%	1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%	0.4%	2026-07-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)	2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%	1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%	0.8%	2026-07-10 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)	2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%	1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%	0.8%	2026-07-10 17:55
Matchbook	2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%	1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%	0.8%	2026-07-10 17:55
Smarkets	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%	3.9%	2026-07-10 17:55