Language:English
Essex v Derbyshire
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Essex (Local)
Prediction 50.27%1.99fair odd
EV +0.535%
Edge +0.267%
Kelly +0.535%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.96%50.00%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.882.0055.56%53.38%53.19%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Derbyshire (Visit)
Prediction 49.73%2.01fair odd
EV -0.535%
Edge -0.267%
Kelly -0.535%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%50.04%50.00%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.891.892.0055.56%52.95%52.91%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essex (Local): 50.27%; Derbyshire (Visit): 49.73%. For Essex (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.535%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +0.535%E +0.267%K +0.535%G +0.003% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -10.48%E -5.82%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-31 12:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.99%E -2.09%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -4.49%E -2.36%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -5.51%E -2.90%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.99%E -2.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.18%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 11:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.99%E -2.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.18%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 11:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.99%E -2.64%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.01%E -3.18%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-30 11:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:39 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.50%E -2.92%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.50%E -3.46%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-30 11:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.00%E -3.21%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.74%K -8.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-30 12:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.01%E -3.79%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.99%E -4.32%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-31 14:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.01%E -3.79%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.99%E -4.32%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -8.01%E -4.38%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.01%E -2.62%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-31 14:38 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -8.01%E -4.38%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -5.51%E -2.90%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-31 14:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.52%E -5.29%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -0.535%E -0.267%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-31 14:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.52%E -5.29%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.51%E -2.90%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-31 14:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.52%E -5.29%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -5.51%E -2.90%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-31 14:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87% | 0.3% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36% | 1.8% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 50.64% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.36% | 1.8% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.77% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.23% | 2.1% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.77% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.23% | 2.6% | 2026-05-31 14:50 |