The School of Odds

Durham v Nottinghamshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Durham (Local)

Prediction 44.97%2.22fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.49%45.44%45.03%50.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.832.082.102.1755%48%48%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Nottinghamshire (Visit)

Prediction 55.03%1.82fair odd
EV +0.699%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.842%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.56%54.97%56.51%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.8360%58%58%55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -17.70%E -9.67%K -21.32%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV +0.699%E +0.382%K +0.842%G +0.006%9.3%2026-07-05 14:09
LeoVegas (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:05
Grosvenor2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:05
LiveScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:05
Casumo2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:05
Virgin Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:04
Unibet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:05
Unibet (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:05
TABtouch2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:04
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 14:04
Ladbrokes (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 13:54
Coral2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-05 13:55
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:29
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 21:55
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 02:25
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-03 22:00
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-04 02:45
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.31%E -1.54%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 14:25
NordicBet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.31%E -1.54%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-05 14:25
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 13:55
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 13:55
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-05 13:55
Marathon Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-05 14:14
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-03 22:05
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 14:25
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 13:55
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33%EV -5.11%E -2.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -7.56%E -4.50%K -11.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-05 13:35
BetOnline.ag2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -2.41%E -1.11%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -8.11%E -4.85%K -12.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 13:30
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.11%E -4.85%K -12.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-05 14:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%1.0%2026-07-05 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%1.0%2026-07-05 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%1.0%2026-07-05 14:25
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 46.84%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.16%1.7%2026-07-05 14:25
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%2.1%2026-07-05 14:25