Language:English
Durham v Nottinghamshire
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Durham (Local)
Prediction 44.97%2.22fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.49%45.44%45.03%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.082.102.1754.64%48.17%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nottinghamshire (Visit)
Prediction 55.03%1.82fair odd
EV +0.699%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.842%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 1.83
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%54.56%54.97%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.8359.88%57.86%57.80%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham (Local): 44.97%; Nottinghamshire (Visit): 55.03%. For Nottinghamshire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.699%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -17.70%E -9.67%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV +0.699%E +0.382%K +0.842%G +0.006% | 9.3% | 2026-07-05 14:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -3.70%E -2.12%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-05 14:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 13:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-03 21:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-03 21:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-03 21:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 02:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-03 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.80%E -2.78%K -6.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-04 02:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.31%E -1.54%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -3.31%E -1.54%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -10.05%E -5.03%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.35%E -3.11%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-05 14:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-03 22:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.56%E -2.65%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.45%E -3.80%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.33%EV -5.11%E -2.42%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -7.56%E -4.50%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-05 13:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -2.41%E -1.11%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -8.11%E -4.85%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 13:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -7.80%E -3.81%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.11%E -4.85%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-05 14:23 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 1.0% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.84% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.16% | 1.7% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05% | 2.1% | 2026-07-05 14:25 |
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