Language:English
Derbyshire v Somerset
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Derbyshire (Local)
Prediction 51.46%1.94fair odd
EV +13.22%
Edge +6.01%
Kelly +11.02%
Growth +1.46%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%50.78%52.32%53.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.851.802.2057.14%54.07%55.56%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Somerset (Visit)
Prediction 48.54%2.06fair odd
EV -0.499%
Edge -0.243%
Kelly -0.475%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.05%49.22%47.68%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.941.982.0559.88%51.61%50.63%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derbyshire (Local): 51.46%; Somerset (Visit): 48.54%. For Derbyshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +13.22%E +6.01%K +11.02%G +1.46% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -18.94%E -11.34%K -28.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-06 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.54%EV +3.44%E +1.71%K +3.41%G +0.117% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -15.06%E -8.61%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV +0.867%E +0.443%K +0.904%G +0.008% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -15.06%E -8.61%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -1.71%E -0.893%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -12.63%E -7.02%K -15.79%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-08 17:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.22%E -1.17%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.78%E -4.09%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.22%E -1.17%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.78%E -4.09%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.22%E -1.17%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.78%E -4.09%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 17:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.74%E -1.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 17:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.74%E -1.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.74%E -1.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 17:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.74%E -1.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.74%E -1.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -2.74%E -1.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -8.26%E -4.37%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -7.37%E -4.09%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.35%E -2.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-08 17:23 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -0.499%E -0.243%K -0.475%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -0.499%E -0.243%K -0.475%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -8.40%E -4.72%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -1.96%E -0.968%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -8.91%E -5.03%K -11.57%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -0.499%E -0.243%K -0.475%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -0.499%E -0.243%K -0.475%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -2.93%E -1.46%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -9.94%E -5.68%K -13.25%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.35%E -2.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50% | 0.5% | 2026-07-08 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.7% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22% | 1.7% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67% | 3.0% | 2026-07-08 17:25 |
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