The School of Odds
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Derbyshire v Leicestershire

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derbyshire (Local)

Prediction 52.90%1.89fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.97%52.70%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.791.801.8357.80%55.99%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leicestershire (Visit)

Prediction 47.10%2.12fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.523%
Kelly -0.998%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%47.03%47.30%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.981.992.1052.36%50.42%50.25%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.19%E -1.74%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.05%E -5.26%K -11.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 04:59
Pinnacle1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -3.72%E -2.04%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -9.10%E -4.72%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 12:29
SportsBet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:19
Sky Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:14
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:19
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:14
betfred_uk1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 13:19
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-12 12:50
Unibet (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.75%E -3.41%K -6.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-12 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.69%E -3.92%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 13:19
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 52.13%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.87%EV -7.69%E -3.92%K -8.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-12 13:19
Unibet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 09:59
Virgin Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 09:59
LiveScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-12 09:59
Grosvenor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:59
Unibet (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:59
TABtouch1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:59
Casumo1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:59
ATG (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -4.77%E -2.65%K -5.97%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 09:59
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.83%E -3.28%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 13:19
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.83%E -3.28%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-12 13:19
Marathon Bet1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.36%E -3.59%K -8.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -8.63%E -4.45%K -9.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 13:24
TAB1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.42%E -4.24%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.45%E -1.68%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 13:19
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.42%E -4.24%K -9.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 13:19
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.42%E -4.24%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.16%E -4.19%K -8.59%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-12 13:19
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.48%E -4.90%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.10%E -0.523%K -0.998%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 13:19
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -8.48%E -4.90%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -1.10%E -0.523%K -0.998%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-12 13:09
Bet Victor1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.48%E -4.90%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 13:19
betano_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.48%E -4.90%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.81%E -2.90%K -5.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 13:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-12 13:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-12 13:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-12 13:24
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-12 13:19
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 52.69%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.31%2.6%2026-07-12 13:25