Language:English
Derbyshire v Durham
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Derbyshire (Local)
Prediction 39.09%2.56fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -0.986%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.47%39.20%39.13%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.292.362.352.5243.67%42.36%42.55%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Durham (Visit)
Prediction 60.91%1.64fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.97%60.80%60.87%62.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.551.6066.67%64.17%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derbyshire (Local): 39.09%; Durham (Visit): 60.91%. For Derbyshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.52, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -1.50%E -0.594%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -8.02%E -5.31%K -15.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.28%E -0.912%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.80%E -4.45%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.28%E -0.912%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.80%E -4.45%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.28%E -0.912%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.80%E -4.45%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.19%E -2.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.59%E -3.60%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-22 01:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.19%E -2.58%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.63%E -5.75%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.97%E -2.93%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.80%E -4.45%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.97%E -2.93%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.80%E -4.45%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-22 16:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.97%E -2.93%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.80%E -4.45%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 22:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.14%E -3.47%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.59%E -3.60%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-22 01:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.14%E -3.47%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.63%E -5.75%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-22 17:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.14%E -3.47%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.63%E -5.75%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-22 17:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -10.10%E -4.39%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -2.54%E -1.59%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 17:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -10.49%E -4.58%K -8.13%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -5.59%E -3.60%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-22 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 0.3% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15% | 2.0% | 2026-05-22 17:20 |