The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Birmingham Bears v Worcestershire

Kickoff: 2026-06-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Bears (Local)

Prediction 55.65%1.80fair odd
EV +0.176%
Edge +0.098%
Kelly +0.220%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%55.30%55.64%57.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.701.711.8062.11%58.85%58.31%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Worcestershire (Visit)

Prediction 44.35%2.25fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.82%44.70%44.36%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.122.102.2051.28%47.15%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Bears (Local): 55.65%; Worcestershire (Visit): 44.35%. For Birmingham Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.797. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.800, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.176%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +0.176%E +0.098%K +0.220%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.31%E -5.65%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-23 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +0.176%E +0.098%K +0.220%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -13.52%E -6.94%K -14.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-23 13:20
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.87%E -3.27%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-26 11:09
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -4.83%E -2.83%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -8.65%E -4.20%K -8.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-24 21:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%EV -5.95%E -3.52%K -8.62%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%EV -9.53%E -4.67%K -9.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-26 11:29
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.50%E -3.87%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-26 17:49
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.50%E -3.87%K -9.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-26 17:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-26 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-26 17:49
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.06%E -4.23%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-26 17:49
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.17%E -4.95%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-26 17:50
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.17%E -4.95%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.44%E -1.11%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-26 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.17%E -4.95%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.65%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-26 17:50
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.17%E -4.95%K -12.57%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.65%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-26 17:49
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -10.40%E -6.46%K -17.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -4.65%E -2.17%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.6%2026-06-26 17:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-06-26 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-06-26 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-06-26 17:50
Matchbook◎1.73I 57.80%NM 56.86%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.14%1.7%2026-06-26 17:50
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%5.2%2026-06-26 17:50