The School of Odds
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Birmingham Bears v Somerset

Kickoff: 2026-05-24 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Bears (Local)

Prediction 40.88%2.45fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.72%40.91%41.10%43.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.332.372.4045.87%42.90%42.28%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Somerset (Visit)

Prediction 59.12%1.69fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.77%59.09%58.90%61.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.571.551.6666.23%63.76%64.52%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Bears (Local): 40.88%; Somerset (Visit): 59.12%. For Somerset (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.66, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -1.89%E -0.786%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.72%EV -2.30%E -0.961%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.28%EV -10.73%E -7.11%K -21.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.96%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.18%E -4.57%K -12.60%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-23 22:10
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.93%E -1.67%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.18%E -4.57%K -12.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -3.93%E -1.67%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-24 14:10
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.98%E -2.60%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.41%E -3.38%K -9.01%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 14:10
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.23%E -2.61%K -6.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-24 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.82%E -2.99%K -7.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 14:20
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -4.82%E -2.99%K -7.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-24 14:20
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.18%E -4.57%K -12.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 14:09
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.18%E -4.57%K -12.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-24 14:09
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-24 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.02%E -3.56%K -6.42%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.36%E -5.40%K -15.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-24 14:00
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -8.43%E -3.76%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -5.41%E -3.38%K -9.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-23 10:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -10.88%E -4.99%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -1.86%E -1.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 06:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-05-24 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%1.9%2026-05-24 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%1.9%2026-05-24 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11%1.9%2026-05-24 14:20
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.09%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.91%2.3%2026-05-24 14:20