Language:English
Namibia v South Africa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Namibia (Local)
Prediction 12.74%7.85fair odd
EV +14.06%
Edge +1.57%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.248%
assuming max odds 8.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.68%12.65%13.15%15.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.707.508.9516.67%12.98%13.33%11.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
South Africa (Visit)
Prediction 87.26%1.15fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.83%
Kelly -28.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.63%87.35%86.85%89.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.071.1194.34%92.77%93.46%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Namibia (Local): 12.74%; South Africa (Visit): 87.26%. For Namibia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.85. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.06%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.68%EV +14.06%E +1.57%K +1.77%G +0.248% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.32%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +8.32%E +0.979%K +1.11%G +0.092% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -7.51%E -7.08%K -125.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.95%E +0.244%K +0.278%G +0.005% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.95%E +0.244%K +0.278%G +0.005% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.95%E +0.244%K +0.278%G +0.005% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 07:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.42%E -0.590%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.34%K -72.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 07:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.42%E -0.590%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.34%K -72.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.42%E -0.590%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.34%K -72.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 07:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.42%E -0.590%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.34%K -72.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -4.42%E -0.590%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -5.76%E -5.34%K -72.04%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -8.25%E -1.15%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -7.51%E -7.08%K -125.14%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-13 07:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.79%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.02%E -3.65%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.79%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.02%E -3.65%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -10.79%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.02%E -3.65%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-13 07:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -10.79%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.89%E -4.49%K -54.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 07:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -10.79%E -1.54%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.89%E -4.49%K -54.34%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -13.98%E -2.07%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -3.15%E -2.83%K -28.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-13 07:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.17%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.76%E -5.34%K -72.04%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-13 07:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -17.17%E -2.64%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -6.64%E -6.20%K -94.80%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -23.54%E -3.92%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.63%EV -4.89%E -4.49%K -54.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-13 07:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14% | 0.4% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.71% | 0.6% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 0.9% | 2026-09-13 07:30 |