The School of Odds
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Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mumbai Indians (Local)

Prediction 60.18%1.66fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -4.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%60.08%60.30%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.551.6266.67%64.24%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucknow Super Giants (Visit)

Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd
EV -0.438%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.292%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.92%39.70%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.412.402.5044.05%41.42%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mumbai Indians (Local): 60.18%; Lucknow Super Giants (Visit): 39.82%. For Lucknow Super Giants (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -0.438%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.52%E -1.55%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-04 02:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.43%E -0.991%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-04 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.43%E -0.991%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-04 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.12%E -1.94%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -5.22%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-04 13:55
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.72%E -2.32%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 03:55
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -4.32%E -2.72%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -8.40%E -3.65%K -6.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 03:55
BetUS🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -4.92%E -3.12%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -7.61%E -3.28%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-04 05:05
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-04 13:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:55
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:39
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.22%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-04 13:45
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 13:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.53%E -3.52%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.41%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.27%EV -6.13%E -3.93%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.73%EV -9.60%E -4.23%K -7.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-04 13:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 13:50
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-04 13:34
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -7.33%E -4.76%K -13.57%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -3.23%E -1.33%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-04 13:50
Unibet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.438%E -0.175%K -0.292%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 13:50
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-04 13:50
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.97%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.22%E -2.19%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-04 13:38
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -9.74%E -6.49%K -19.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -2.43%E -0.991%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 13:49
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.74%E -6.49%K -19.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.42%E -1.84%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-04 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72%0.1%2026-05-04 13:55
Matchbook◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%0.3%2026-05-04 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-05-04 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.62I 61.73%NM 61.43%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.57%0.5%2026-05-04 13:55