The School of Odds
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Zimbabwe v Bangladesh

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 10:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zimbabwe (Local)

Prediction 48.81%2.05fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.74%48.68%49.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.901.941.942.0252.63%51.51%51.55%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bangladesh (Visit)

Prediction 51.19%1.95fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.40%51.26%51.32%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.831.831.8856.82%54.64%54.64%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zimbabwe (Local): 48.81%; Bangladesh (Visit): 51.19%. For Zimbabwe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -1.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -1.41%E -0.697%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -5.81%E -3.16%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 10:15
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.38%E -1.19%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 10:10
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.38%E -1.19%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-17 10:10
Unibet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -3.36%E -1.70%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -7.34%E -4.06%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 10:25
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -3.85%E -1.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -7.34%E -4.06%K -9.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 10:20
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -3.85%E -1.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -7.34%E -4.06%K -9.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 10:25
ATG (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -3.85%E -1.95%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -7.34%E -4.06%K -9.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-17 10:20
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.82%E -2.47%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.27%E -2.28%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-17 10:20
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.82%E -2.47%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -5.29%E -2.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 10:10
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.82%E -2.47%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 10:10
FanDuel1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -5.31%E -2.74%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 10:10
Grosvenor1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -5.31%E -2.74%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 10:25
TABtouch1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -5.31%E -2.74%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 10:25
LiveScore Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -5.31%E -2.74%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -8.37%E -4.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 10:25
Virgin Bet1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -5.31%E -2.74%K -5.65%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -8.37%E -4.67%K -10.59%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-17 10:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.80%E -3.01%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.29%E -2.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 10:10
Neds1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.80%E -3.01%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -5.29%E -2.86%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-17 10:10
Betr (AU)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -5.80%E -3.01%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.81%E -3.16%K -6.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 10:25
PointsBet (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.29%E -3.28%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 10:25
Bet Right1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.29%E -3.28%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 10:25
SportsBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.29%E -3.28%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.76%E -2.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 10:25
DraftKings1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -4.27%E -2.28%K -4.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 10:20
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 10:25
Bet Victor1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.32%E -3.45%K -7.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-17 10:24
betano_uk1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.85%E -4.36%K -9.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-17 10:18
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%EV -6.78%E -3.55%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.04%EV -9.90%E -5.63%K -13.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 10:20
TAB1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -7.27%E -3.82%K -8.07%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -4.27%E -2.28%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-17 10:25
GTbets1.90I 52.63%NM 49.47%EV -7.27%E -3.82%K -8.07%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.53%EV -4.78%E -2.57%K -5.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%0.3%2026-07-17 10:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-07-17 10:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-07-17 10:25
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-07-17 10:25