The School of Odds
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New Zealand v South Africa

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 06:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand (Local)

Prediction 59.26%1.69fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -5.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%59.41%59.31%61.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.601.601.6365.79%62.64%62.50%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Africa (Visit)

Prediction 40.74%2.45fair odd
EV +1.44%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +0.964%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.29%40.59%40.69%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.332.332.4945.45%42.99%42.92%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand (Local): 59.26%; South Africa (Visit): 40.74%. For South Africa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.44%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +1.44%E +0.577%K +0.964%G +0.014%3.1%2026-03-16 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -9.92%E -6.53%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -0.194%E -0.079%K -0.134%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-17 06:05
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -3.86%E -1.64%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 23:05
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 06:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 06:04
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 11:34
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.36%E -4.03%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.40%E -2.09%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -4.67%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 06:10
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.67%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 06:00
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:54
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 12:09
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.36%E -4.03%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 06:09
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -5.49%E -2.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 06:00
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 05:49
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 05:49
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 05:59
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 05:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24%0.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Matchbook◎1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-03-17 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-03-17 06:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.23%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-17 06:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.23%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-17 06:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.23%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-17 06:05