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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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New Zealand v South Africa

开赛时间： 2026-03-17 06:15 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

28 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

New Zealand (主队)

预测 59.26%1.69公平赔率
EV -3.40%
优势 -2.09%
Kelly -5.40%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.63

博彩公司预测分布
57.59%59.41%59.31%61.71%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.521.601.601.6365.79%62.64%62.50%61.35%最小值均值中位数最大值

South Africa (客队)

预测 40.74%2.45公平赔率
EV +1.44%
优势 +0.577%
Kelly +0.964%
增长率 +0.014%

假设最高赔率为 2.49

博彩公司预测分布
38.29%40.59%40.69%42.41%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.202.332.332.4945.45%42.99%42.92%40.16%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：New Zealand (主队)：59.26%；South Africa (客队)：40.74%。 对于“South Africa (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.45。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.49，对应+1.44%的正期望值。

有 3 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (28 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼利润率更新时间
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +1.44%E +0.577%K +0.964%G +0.014%3.1%2026-03-16 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -9.92%E -6.53%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -0.194%E -0.079%K -0.134%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-17 06:05
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -3.86%E -1.64%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-16 23:05
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 06:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-17 06:04
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.77%E -3.63%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 11:34
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.36%E -4.03%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.27%E -1.82%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-17 06:05
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.40%E -2.09%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -4.67%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-17 06:10
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.67%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 06:00
Unibet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:54
Grosvenor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
Casumo🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 12:09
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 10:55
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.59%EV -6.36%E -4.03%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.41%EV -5.08%E -2.18%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 06:09
FanDuel🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -5.18%E -3.24%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV -5.49%E -2.37%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 06:00
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-17 05:49
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.30%E -2.74%K -4.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-17 05:49
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.96%E -4.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.34%E -3.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-17 05:59
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -3.99%E -2.47%K -6.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -10.38%E -4.72%K -8.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-17 05:49
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (4)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24%0.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Matchbook◎1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90%0.2%2026-03-17 06:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-03-17 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-03-17 06:10

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (3)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2选项 3利润率 ▲更新时间
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.23%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-17 06:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.23%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-17 06:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.23%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.2%2026-03-17 06:05