The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New Zealand v South Africa

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 06:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand (Local)

Prediction 54.14%1.85fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -3.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.52%54.75%53.72%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.731.8061.73%57.61%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Africa (Visit)

Prediction 45.86%2.18fair odd
EV +5.48%
Edge +2.38%
Kelly +4.21%
Growth +0.231%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%45.25%46.28%47.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.082.3051.28%48.29%48.08%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand (Local): 54.14%; South Africa (Visit): 45.86%. For South Africa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.48%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -10.67%E -6.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV +5.48%E +2.38%K +4.21%G +0.231%4.1%2026-03-21 21:24
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -12.29%E -7.59%K -19.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +5.48%E +2.38%K +4.21%G +0.231%5.2%2026-03-22 01:54
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -10.67%E -6.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +3.18%E +1.42%K +2.55%G +0.081%5.1%2026-03-22 05:49
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -10.67%E -6.47%K -16.41%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV +1.81%E +0.814%K +1.48%G +0.027%5.7%2026-03-22 05:49
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 06:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:55
TABtouch🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
Casumo🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:55
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.70%E -1.76%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 05:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -3.63%E -2.04%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -4.61%E -2.22%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 05:59
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.61%E -2.22%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 06:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.71%E -2.68%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 05:59
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.99%E -2.92%K -5.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 06:04
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.63%E -2.04%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.36%E -3.65%K -7.22%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 06:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 06:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 06:09
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 06:09
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 06:09
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.55%E -1.42%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 06:09
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.34%E -3.66%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.28%E -4.14%K -8.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-22 05:59
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.52%EV -3.09%E -1.73%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.48%EV -9.20%E -4.65%K -9.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 06:09
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 06:10
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.25%E -3.00%K -7.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 06:09
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-22 06:00
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -9.04%E -5.38%K -13.30%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.57%E -5.42%K -11.13%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-22 06:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.73%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.27%0.1%2026-03-22 06:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.73%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.27%0.1%2026-03-22 06:10
Matchbook◎1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00%0.4%2026-03-22 06:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-03-22 06:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.27%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.57%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.5%2026-03-22 06:00