The School of Odds
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New Zealand v South Africa

Kickoff: 2026-03-25 06:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Zealand (Local)

Prediction 56.49%1.77fair odd
EV -0.013%
Edge -0.008%
Kelly -0.017%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%56.22%56.76%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.701.7762.50%59.46%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Africa (Visit)

Prediction 43.51%2.30fair odd
EV +0.074%
Edge +0.032%
Kelly +0.057%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%43.78%43.24%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.3050.00%46.54%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Zealand (Local): 56.49%; South Africa (Visit): 43.51%. For South Africa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.298. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.300, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.074%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.49%E -5.24%K -13.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +0.074%E +0.032%K +0.057%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-25 06:05
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.10%E -0.934%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-25 06:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 05:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:10
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:09
FanDuel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.23%E -3.75%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-25 06:10
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-25 06:10
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.28%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-25 06:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -1.71%E -0.982%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-25 05:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:04
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-25 06:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-25 06:10
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-25 06:09
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -9.05%E -5.62%K -14.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-25 05:59
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -0.578%E -0.329%K -0.761%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -7.76%E -3.66%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-24 07:15
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-25 05:54
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.66%E -3.39%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-25 05:49
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.62%E -6.01%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-25 06:10
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -9.62%E -6.01%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.63%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-25 06:09
Bet Right🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.55%EV -3.97%E -2.33%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.45%EV -11.24%E -5.51%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-25 06:09
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -0.013%E -0.008%K -0.017%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -12.98%E -6.49%K -12.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-24 21:14
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -0.578%E -0.329%K -0.761%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -12.98%E -6.49%K -12.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-25 06:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-03-25 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%0.3%2026-03-25 06:10
Matchbook◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%0.3%2026-03-25 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-25 06:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.08%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.5%2026-03-25 06:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.08%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.5%2026-03-25 06:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.08%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.19%11.5%2026-03-25 06:10