The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hong Kong v Kuwait

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 05:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hong Kong (Local)

Prediction 55.83%1.79fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.23%56.05%56.00%59.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.691.7461.73%59.29%59.17%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kuwait (Visit)

Prediction 44.17%2.26fair odd
EV +4.25%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +3.12%
Growth +0.133%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.70%43.95%44.00%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.102.3650.00%46.94%47.62%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hong Kong (Local): 55.83%; Kuwait (Visit): 44.17%. For Kuwait (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.36, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -9.56%E -5.90%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV +4.25%E +1.80%K +3.12%G +0.133%4.1%2026-03-01 04:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.65%E -3.35%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.05%E -0.469%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-01 04:55
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 04:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.82%E -1.28%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 04:45
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -6.77%E -4.05%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -3.70%E -1.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 04:49
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.66%EV -7.33%E -4.41%K -11.10%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.34%EV -4.14%E -1.91%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 04:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.10%E -3.00%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 04:45
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.10%E -3.00%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.03%E -2.34%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 04:45
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.86%E -1.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 10:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.42%E -1.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 10:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.42%E -1.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-01 03:29
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.10%E -3.00%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 00:59
GTbets🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.65%E -3.35%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 04:55
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.89%E -4.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.24%E -3.45%K -6.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 19:34
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.42%E -1.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.44%E -4.61%K -8.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-01 04:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -4.54%E -2.65%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -9.44%E -4.61%K -8.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-01 04:50
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -7.89%E -4.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.65%E -5.83%K -11.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 10:50
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -7.89%E -4.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -11.65%E -5.83%K -11.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-28 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%5.2%2026-03-01 05:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%5.2%2026-03-01 05:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%5.2%2026-03-01 05:00