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England v Sri Lanka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
England (Local)
Prediction 76.36%1.31fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.30%76.52%76.02%80.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2984.75%81.78%81.97%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sri Lanka (Visit)
Prediction 23.64%4.23fair odd
EV +15.86%
Edge +3.24%
Kelly +4.07%
Growth +0.645%
assuming max odds 4.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%23.48%23.98%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.244.254.9027.03%23.57%23.53%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 76.36%; Sri Lanka (Visit): 23.64%. For Sri Lanka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV +15.86%E +3.24%K +4.07%G +0.645% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +11.13%E +2.37%K +3.01%G +0.335% | 6.0% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.14%E -7.68%K -48.09%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +8.76%E +1.91%K +2.43%G +0.213% | 5.8% | 2026-09-15 17:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -9.14%E -7.68%K -48.09%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV +8.76%E +1.91%K +2.43%G +0.213% | 5.8% | 2026-09-15 17:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -9.90%E -8.39%K -55.00%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV +8.76%E +1.91%K +2.43%G +0.213% | 6.5% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.85%E -5.61%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +6.40%E +1.42%K +1.83%G +0.117% | 4.2% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.37%E -6.98%K -41.87%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +2.38%E +0.550%K +0.715%G +0.017% | 6.4% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.60%EV -6.08%E -4.95%K -26.45%G +0.000% | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.40%EV +0.725%E +0.170%K +0.222%G +0.002% | 4.8% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.85%E -5.61%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +0.488%E +0.115%K +0.150%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -6.08%E -4.95%K -26.45%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -4.24%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -5.32%E -4.29%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.42%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.08%E -4.95%K -26.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.79%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -1.50%E -1.16%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -10.15%E -2.67%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -2.26%E -1.77%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -11.33%E -3.02%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.79%E -3.01%K -14.58%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -11.33%E -3.02%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.56%E -3.64%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -11.33%E -3.02%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-15 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.26%E -1.77%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -2.26%E -1.77%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.03%E -2.38%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.03%E -2.38%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -3.03%E -2.38%K -11.22%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.85%E -5.61%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.85%E -5.61%K -31.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.52%E -3.38%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 17:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 0.7% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 0.9% | 2026-09-15 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-09-15 17:15 |