The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Afghanistan v India

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Afghanistan (Local)

Prediction 14.50%6.90fair odd
EV +8.77%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.118%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.69%14.59%14.40%16.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.546.597.5018.18%15.30%15.16%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

India (Visit)

Prediction 85.50%1.17fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -18.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.08%85.41%85.60%87.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.111.101.1491.74%90.33%90.91%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Afghanistan (Local): 14.50%; India (Visit): 85.50%. For Afghanistan (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.90. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.77%E +1.17%K +1.35%G +0.118%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.81%E -6.25%K -75.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 13:55
GTbets🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +8.77%E +1.17%K +1.35%G +0.118%1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.81%E -6.25%K -75.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 13:55
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
Casumo🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:40
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.52%E +0.217%K +0.254%G +0.004%1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:40
FanDuel🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 14.40%EV -4.28%E -0.648%K -0.764%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.60%EV -5.10%E -4.59%K -46.35%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 13:55
Pinnacle🎯6.59I 15.17%NM 14.42%EV -4.42%E -0.671%K -0.792%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 85.58%EV -5.10%E -4.59%K -46.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-15 07:20
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.73%E -0.882%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 13:55
TABtouch🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.73%E -0.882%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.95%E -5.41%K -59.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 13:55
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -9.36%E -1.50%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.10%E -4.59%K -46.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 13:55
Neds🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.24%E -3.79%K -35.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.24%E -3.79%K -35.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 13:55
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.24%E -3.79%K -35.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 13:55
TAB🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.98%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.24%E -3.79%K -35.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 13:45
PlayUp🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -16.61%E -2.89%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -2.53%E -2.22%K -18.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 13:55
Bet Victor🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -18.78%E -3.35%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -5.10%E -4.59%K -46.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 13:44
betano_uk🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV -18.78%E -3.35%K -4.08%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -5.10%E -4.59%K -46.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 13:44
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -20.23%E -3.68%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.24%E -3.79%K -35.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%0.9%2026-09-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%0.9%2026-09-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%0.9%2026-09-15 13:55
Matchbook◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%0.9%2026-09-15 13:55