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Phoenix Mercury v Los Angeles Sparks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 55.94%1.79fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%55.99%55.87%57.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.691.691.7564.10%59.11%59.17%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Los Angeles Sparks (Visit)
Prediction 44.06%2.27fair odd
EV -0.858%
Edge -0.381%
Kelly -0.687%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.60%44.01%44.13%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.172.182.2548.31%46.01%45.87%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 55.94%; Los Angeles Sparks (Visit): 44.06%. For Los Angeles Sparks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.858%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%EV -2.11%E -1.21%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.67%E -1.53%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.67%E -1.53%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.67%E -1.53%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -3.23%E -1.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%EV -3.94%E -1.81%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.23%E -1.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.23%E -1.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 01:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.23%E -1.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 01:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.23%E -1.87%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-22 01:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.79%E -2.20%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.94%E -1.81%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.79%E -2.20%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.94%E -1.81%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-21 23:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-22 01:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-22 00:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.94%E -1.81%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-22 01:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 01:30 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.35%E -2.54%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 01:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.91%E -2.89%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 23:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.91%E -2.89%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.91%E -2.89%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 00:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.91%E -2.89%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 00:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.47%E -3.23%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-21 21:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.47%E -3.23%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.94%E -1.81%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.03%E -3.59%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.03%E -3.59%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 00:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.03%E -3.59%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.26%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 00:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.03%E -3.59%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.03%E -3.59%K -8.86%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -6.59%E -3.11%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-22 01:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.858%E -0.381%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-21 19:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.74%E -0.780%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-22 01:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 19:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.06%E -1.39%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 19:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.59%E -3.94%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-22 00:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.38%E -5.79%K -15.13%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.02%EV -12.74%E -8.17%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 42.98%EV -8.79%E -4.25%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-22 01:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 0.6% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.68% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 43.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-05-22 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 2.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 2.1% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68% | 3.2% | 2026-05-22 01:50 |