The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Las Vegas Aces v Phoenix Mercury

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 19:52 UTC

Final: Las Vegas Aces 66–99 Phoenix Mercury

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Aces (Local)

Prediction 78.88%1.27fair odd
EV +0.180%
Edge +0.142%
Kelly +0.666%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.90%78.72%78.95%80.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.201.201.2788.50%83.13%83.33%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 21.12%4.74fair odd
EV +3.48%
Edge +0.710%
Kelly +0.892%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%21.28%21.05%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.524.504.9025.00%22.11%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Vegas Aces (Local): 78.88%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 21.12%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.74. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 80.07%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.93%EV +3.48%E +0.710%K +0.892%G +0.031%2.4%2026-05-09 19:43
Unibet (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
LeoVegas🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
TABtouch🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
Bally Bet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%4.9%2026-05-09 19:44
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -6.92%E -5.86%K -38.44%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +1.37%E +0.285%K +0.360%G +0.005%5.6%2026-05-09 19:44
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.92%E -5.86%K -38.44%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -0.744%E -0.158%K -0.201%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 19:44
Caesars🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -4.55%E -3.76%K -21.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -2.86%E -0.621%K -0.793%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-09 19:40
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.34%E -4.45%K -26.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -2.86%E -0.621%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 19:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.34%E -4.45%K -26.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -2.86%E -0.621%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 19:44
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -6.13%E -5.15%K -32.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -2.86%E -0.621%K -0.793%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 19:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.34%E -4.45%K -26.71%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -3.91%E -0.860%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 19:44
DraftKings🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -4.97%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 19:44
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.34%E -4.45%K -26.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.97%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 19:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.34%E -4.45%K -26.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -4.97%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 19:45
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.71%E -6.59%K -45.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.97%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 19:44
Fliff🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -8.50%E -7.33%K -53.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -4.97%E -1.10%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 19:44
GTbets🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -6.02%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-09 19:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -2.98%E -2.42%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -7.08%E -1.61%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-09 19:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -2.98%E -2.42%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -7.08%E -1.61%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-09 19:45
Fanatics🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.08%E -1.61%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 19:39
BetAnything🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -7.08%E -1.61%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-09 19:39
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.10%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.90%EV -8.14%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 19:43
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -2.19%E -1.76%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -9.19%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-09 19:39
Bet Right🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -9.19%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-09 19:39
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -6.92%E -5.86%K -38.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -9.19%E -2.14%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 79.00%EV -10.86%E -9.61%K -83.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.00%EV -10.25%E -2.41%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-09 19:45
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -3.76%E -3.09%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -11.30%E -2.69%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-09 19:31
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.19%E -1.76%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -13.42%E -3.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 19:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -2.19%E -1.76%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -13.42%E -3.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-09 19:44
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -5.34%E -4.45%K -26.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -13.42%E -3.27%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 19:30
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV +0.180%E +0.142%K +0.666%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -15.53%E -3.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-09 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.22I 81.97%NM 80.48%5.03I 19.88%NM 19.52%1.8%2026-05-09 19:49
ProphetX◎1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%4.4%2026-05-09 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 47.87%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.13%89.9%2026-05-09 19:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 47.87%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.13%89.9%2026-05-09 19:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 47.87%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.13%89.9%2026-05-09 19:49