Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Sky v Phoenix Mercury

2026-08-04 01:00 UTC — WNBA

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Sky (Local)

Prediction 52.16%1.92fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.10%52.22%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.821.831.8755.56%54.88%54.79%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 47.84%2.09fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%47.90%47.78%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.981.982.0253.19%50.57%50.38%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chicago Sky (Local): 52.16%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 47.84%. For Chicago Sky (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.92. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.87, with an expected value of -2.47%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.47%E -1.32%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.70%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 23:45
SportsBet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.51%E -1.90%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.70%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-02 01:50
Unibet (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.03%E -2.19%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -5.27%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 00:09
MyBookie.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.03%E -2.19%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -5.27%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 01:10
1xBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -3.35%E -1.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 00:08
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:49
theScore Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 00:09
GTbets1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 00:25
Caesars1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 00:24
Hard Rock Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:04
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 01:25
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.27%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:25
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.27%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 01:24
DraftKings1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.08%E -2.79%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.35%E -1.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-02 00:08
Bet Right1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.08%E -2.79%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 00:15
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.08%E -2.79%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.79%E -2.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 00:14
NordicBet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.08%E -2.79%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -6.70%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 00:09
Betsson1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -5.08%E -2.79%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -6.70%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-02 00:09
ReBet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.73%EV -5.60%E -3.09%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -7.18%E -3.70%K -7.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 00:09
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 00:09
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 00:10
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.31%E -2.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 00:09
Coolbet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.27%E -2.66%K -5.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 00:12
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.70%E -3.44%K -7.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 01:05
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.62%E -4.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 23:44
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 51.09%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.65%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -10.05%E -5.35%K -11.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-08-02 01:45
Polymarket1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%2.9%2026-08-02 00:04