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Villanova Wildcats v UConn Huskies
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Villanova Wildcats (Local)
Prediction 39.79%2.51fair odd
EV -0.931%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.625%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.97%40.02%39.85%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.242.382.402.4944.64%42.06%41.67%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
UConn Huskies (Visit)
Prediction 60.21%1.66fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +2.55%
Growth +0.045%
assuming max odds 1.69
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.11%59.98%60.15%61.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6965.36%63.34%63.69%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Villanova Wildcats (Local): 39.79%; UConn Huskies (Visit): 60.21%. For UConn Huskies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.76%.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -10.48%E -4.66%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV +1.76%E +1.04%K +2.55%G +0.045% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 21:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV +0.556%E +0.333%K +0.831%G +0.005% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 22:22 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -6.10%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.45%E -1.51%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.72%E -1.54%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -3.06%E -1.90%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.06%E -1.90%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 21:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.931%E -0.374%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-21 22:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -0.931%E -0.374%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-21 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.52%E -1.03%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-21 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.32%E -1.37%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-21 22:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 21:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 21:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -10.88%E -4.86%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -4.26%E -2.68%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.86%E -3.08%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.86%E -3.08%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.86%E -3.08%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.51%E -1.88%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.36%EV -7.70%E -3.32%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.46%E -3.48%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-21 21:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.50%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.67%E -4.30%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.50%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.67%E -4.30%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-21 22:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -7.30%E -3.13%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -6.67%E -4.30%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-21 21:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.95%EV -7.30%E -3.13%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.05%EV -6.67%E -4.30%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-21 21:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%EV -6.10%E -2.59%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.51%EV -7.27%E -4.72%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.50%E -2.77%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -7.27%E -4.72%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.15%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-21 21:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.49%E -3.69%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.15%K -14.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.55I 39.22%NM 39.29% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.71% | -0.2% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 1.2% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87% | 1.4% | 2026-02-21 22:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.32% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.68% | 1.7% | 2026-02-21 22:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80% | 2.0% | 2026-02-21 22:20 |