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Richmond Spiders v Dayton Flyers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Richmond Spiders (Local)
Prediction 34.17%2.93fair odd
EV -0.915%
Edge -0.315%
Kelly -0.481%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.86%34.25%34.27%35.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.802.9038.46%35.97%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dayton Flyers (Visit)
Prediction 65.83%1.52fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -5.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.20%65.75%65.73%67.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.441.441.4871.94%69.51%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Spiders (Local): 34.17%; Dayton Flyers (Visit): 65.83%. For Richmond Spiders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.915%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.915%E -0.315%K -0.481%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-03 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -2.28%E -0.798%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -2.28%E -0.798%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 22:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 19:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 19:38 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -2.62%E -0.920%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.86%EV -2.96%E -1.04%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.14%EV -8.49%E -6.11%K -21.78%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-03 22:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.23%E -2.19%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-03 22:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.88%E -2.66%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-03 23:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-03 22:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.86%E -4.10%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.52%E -4.59%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.57%E -1.73%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 23:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 23:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 23:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.52%E -4.59%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-03 20:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -7.18%E -5.09%K -17.50%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-03 22:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.07%EV -6.38%E -2.33%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.93%EV -2.57%E -1.73%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-03 23:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.38%EV -7.41%E -2.73%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -6.52%E -4.59%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.52%E -4.59%K -15.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.48%E -4.00%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.82%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-03 23:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.48%E -4.00%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -7.83%E -5.60%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.48%E -4.00%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -7.83%E -5.60%K -19.59%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.16%E -4.29%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.16%E -4.29%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-03 22:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.23% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.77% | 0.0% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 0.4% | 2026-03-03 23:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 1.1% | 2026-03-03 23:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.72% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.28% | 2.1% | 2026-03-03 23:34 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05% | 3.0% | 2026-03-03 23:50 |