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Niagara Purple Eagles v Merrimack Warriors
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Niagara Purple Eagles (Local)
Prediction 25.08%3.99fair odd
EV +0.311%
Edge +0.078%
Kelly +0.104%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%25.29%25.05%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.793.804.0030.30%26.36%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Merrimack Warriors (Visit)
Prediction 74.92%1.33fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -5.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.74%74.71%74.95%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3181.97%78.87%78.74%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Niagara Purple Eagles (Local): 25.08%; Merrimack Warriors (Visit): 74.92%. For Niagara Purple Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.311%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39%EV +0.311%E +0.078%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.61%EV -3.35%E -2.60%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +0.311%E +0.078%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +0.311%E +0.078%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-01 18:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +0.311%E +0.078%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.59%E -7.05%K -39.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +0.311%E +0.078%K +0.104%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.59%E -7.05%K -39.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-01 12:18 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.70%EV -0.692%E -0.175%K -0.234%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.30%EV -7.85%E -6.38%K -34.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-01 12:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 18:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.943%E -0.239%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.20%E -0.563%K -0.757%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.45%E -0.896%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.45%E -0.896%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-01 18:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.85%EV -3.70%E -0.964%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.15%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 18:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.35%E -2.60%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.35%E -2.60%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.35%E -2.60%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.35%E -2.60%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 18:13 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.35%E -2.60%K -11.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.70%E -1.24%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.85%E -3.82%K -17.96%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 18:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 18:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.60%E -4.44%K -21.53%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.47%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.47%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-01 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.47%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -9.72%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -1.85%E -1.41%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 18:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -12.23%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.60%E -2.00%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -12.23%E -3.49%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.60%E -2.00%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 18:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.74%E -4.33%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.10%E -3.20%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 18:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.74%E -4.33%K -6.14%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.10%E -3.20%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 18:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -17.24%E -5.23%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -2.60%E -2.00%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 18:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.27I 23.42%NM 23.48% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.52% | -0.2% | 2026-03-01 18:44 |
| Polymarket◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.77% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.23% | 0.9% | 2026-03-01 18:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.90% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.10% | 1.7% | 2026-03-01 18:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.51% | 2.1% | 2026-03-01 18:54 |
| Novig◎ | 4.02I 24.88%NM 24.29% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.71% | 2.4% | 2026-03-01 18:45 |