Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Murray St Racers v Evansville Purple Aces

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Murray St Racers (Local)

Prediction 89.37%1.12fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -28.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.09

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.31%89.40%89.37%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.0995.24%93.70%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Evansville Purple Aces (Visit)

Prediction 10.63%9.41fair odd
EV +16.90%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.286%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.71%10.60%10.63%12.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.548.2011.0013.33%11.71%12.20%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Murray St Racers (Local): 89.37%; Evansville Purple Aces (Visit): 10.63%. For Evansville Purple Aces (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.41. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.16%E -5.87%K -123.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +16.90%E +1.54%K +1.69%G +0.286%4.3%2026-02-21 12:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.10%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%9.74I 10.27%NM 9.90%EV +3.51%E +0.360%K +0.402%G +0.014%3.7%2026-02-21 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.10%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%9.74I 10.27%NM 9.90%EV +3.51%E +0.360%K +0.402%G +0.014%3.7%2026-02-21 12:50
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.06%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.94%EV +2.02%E +0.211%K +0.235%G +0.005%4.8%2026-02-21 15:45
BetUS🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +0.959%E +0.101%K +0.113%G +0.001%4.0%2026-02-21 12:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +0.959%E +0.101%K +0.113%G +0.001%4.0%2026-02-21 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +0.959%E +0.101%K +0.113%G +0.001%4.9%2026-02-21 03:43
Betway🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV +0.959%E +0.101%K +0.113%G +0.001%4.9%2026-02-21 20:45
Caesars🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -4.35%E -0.484%K -0.544%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 20:44
DraftKings🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -4.35%E -0.484%K -0.544%G +0.000%4.6%2026-02-21 20:45
Bovada🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -4.35%E -0.484%K -0.544%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-21 09:48
BetMGM🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -7.01%E -0.801%K -0.905%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 20:45
Neds🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 20:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 20:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 20:45
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 20:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 20:45
PlayUp🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-21 20:50
BoyleSports🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.16%E -5.87%K -123.17%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -9.67%E -1.14%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-21 09:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.65%EV -6.16%E -5.87%K -123.17%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.35%EV -12.86%E -1.57%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 19:10
Fliff🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.43%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.57%EV -13.92%E -1.72%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-21 20:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
BetRivers🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
betPARX🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.48%E -3.22%K -43.47%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:05
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.37%E -4.09%K -62.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 20:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 20:45
Coral🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 20:45
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 00:40
1xBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.26%E -4.97%K -87.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-02-21 18:20
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.16%E -5.87%K -123.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 23:50
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.16%E -5.87%K -123.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -14.98%E -1.87%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-20 23:50
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -2.58%E -2.37%K -28.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -20.30%E -2.71%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-21 20:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.09I 91.74%NM 91.98%12.50I 8.00%NM 8.02%-0.3%2026-02-21 20:45
Kalshi1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86%1.6%2026-02-21 20:45
Novig1.07I 93.46%NM 91.84%12.05I 8.30%NM 8.16%1.8%2026-02-21 19:45
ProphetX1.08I 92.59%NM 90.75%10.60I 9.43%NM 9.25%2.0%2026-02-21 20:55