Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan St Spartans v UCLA Bruins

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Michigan St Spartans (Local)

Prediction 67.31%1.49fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -6.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.11%67.38%67.32%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4473.53%70.97%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UCLA Bruins (Visit)

Prediction 32.69%3.06fair odd
EV -0.310%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.151%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.62%32.68%33.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.912.903.0536.36%34.40%34.48%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Michigan St Spartans (Local): 67.31%; UCLA Bruins (Visit): 32.69%. For UCLA Bruins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -0.310%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.07%E -2.13%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.85%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 18:20
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -3.07%E -2.13%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -6.85%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-13 21:10
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -1.94%E -0.648%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 17:09
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -1.94%E -0.648%K -0.972%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-13 23:30
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-14 00:24
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 23:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 23:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 23:30
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.20%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.80%EV -4.23%E -1.44%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 22:10
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-13 23:04
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-13 19:44
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.74%E -2.62%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 00:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 23:29
TAB🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 21:14
Bet Right🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -5.87%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 23:30
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.85%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.41%E -3.11%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.85%E -2.40%K -3.70%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-14 00:10
GTbets🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -5.09%E -3.61%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-13 23:40
ReBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -5.09%E -3.61%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV -3.91%E -1.33%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 00:55
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.11%EV -5.09%E -3.61%K -12.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -10.12%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 15:44
Caesars🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.310%E -0.102%K -0.151%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-13 23:27
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:45
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:45
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -3.58%E -1.21%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 00:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 00:45
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 00:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 00:44
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -5.87%E -2.04%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 20:09
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-13 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.12%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 00:10
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.76%E -4.11%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.12%E -3.68%K -5.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-14 00:10
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.06%EV -6.43%E -4.63%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.94%EV -7.50%E -2.65%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-13 23:05
Fliff🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.83%EV -6.43%E -4.63%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.48%E -3.03%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-14 00:54
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.78%E -5.68%K -21.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-13 20:49
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -7.78%E -5.68%K -21.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -5.21%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-13 20:49
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.45%E -6.21%K -23.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -1.94%E -0.648%K -0.972%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-14 00:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.47I 68.03%NM 68.18%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.82%-0.2%2026-03-14 00:24
Novig1.47I 68.03%NM 67.90%3.11I 32.15%NM 32.10%0.2%2026-03-14 00:40
ProphetX1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-03-14 00:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-03-14 00:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%0.8%2026-03-14 00:55
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%1.0%2026-03-13 21:30
Polymarket1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%1.0%2026-03-14 00:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%1.4%2026-03-14 00:55