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Kansas St Wildcats v TCU Horned Frogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kansas St Wildcats (Local)
Prediction 41.13%2.43fair odd
EV +0.766%
Edge +0.313%
Kelly +0.528%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.58%41.34%40.95%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.282.302.4550.00%43.93%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TCU Horned Frogs (Visit)
Prediction 58.87%1.70fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +3.29%
Growth +0.080%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%58.66%59.05%61.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.601.7465.79%62.23%62.70%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas St Wildcats (Local): 41.13%; TCU Horned Frogs (Visit): 58.87%. For TCU Horned Frogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -14.86%E -7.18%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV +2.44%E +1.40%K +3.29%G +0.080% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.67%EV -14.86%E -7.18%K -13.89%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.33%EV +2.44%E +1.40%K +3.29%G +0.080% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -15.69%E -7.65%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV +2.44%E +1.40%K +3.29%G +0.080% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -15.69%E -7.65%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV +1.26%E +0.731%K +1.75%G +0.022% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -16.92%E -8.38%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV +0.081%E +0.047%K +0.115%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -16.92%E -8.38%K -16.59%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV +0.081%E +0.047%K +0.115%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -11.57%E -5.38%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -0.508%E -0.301%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -17.74%E -8.87%K -17.74%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.35%EV -1.10%E -0.653%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.86%E -1.74%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -4.04%E -2.48%K -6.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.29%E -0.538%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:32 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.29%E -0.538%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:32 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.29%E -0.538%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.11%E -0.888%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -2.94%E -1.24%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -7.05%E -3.12%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -7.87%E -3.51%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.52%E -4.33%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 23:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -11.57%E -5.38%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -4.63%E -2.86%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -3.76%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.81%E -3.63%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.81%E -3.63%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 23:31 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.81%E -3.63%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 23:31 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.40%E -4.02%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.40%E -4.02%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -6.98%E -4.42%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -11.57%E -5.38%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -6.98%E -4.42%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.57%E -4.82%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.57%E -4.82%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.57%E -4.82%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 23:31 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.57%E -4.82%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.46%E -3.32%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.57%E -4.82%K -13.29%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV +0.766%E +0.313%K +0.528%G +0.004% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 23:32 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.056%E -0.023%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.056%E -0.023%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -0.056%E -0.023%K -0.039%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -1.29%E -0.538%K -0.922%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -3.35%E -1.42%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -8.16%E -5.23%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.64%EV -2.94%E -1.24%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.36%EV -8.75%E -5.65%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -2.11%E -0.888%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -9.93%E -6.49%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 23:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.93%E -6.49%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 23:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.40%E -2.35%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -9.93%E -6.49%K -18.73%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -0.468%E -0.193%K -0.329%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -10.52%E -6.92%K -20.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 23:31 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44% | 0.1% | 2026-02-28 23:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 0.2% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.68% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.32% | 3.2% | 2026-02-28 23:34 |
| Novig◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 23:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 23:35 |