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Indiana Hoosiers v Michigan St Spartans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Indiana Hoosiers (Local)
Prediction 40.92%2.44fair odd
EV +2.30%
Edge +0.920%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.035%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%40.85%41.07%42.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.282.5046.51%43.53%43.86%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michigan St Spartans (Visit)
Prediction 59.08%1.69fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.33%59.15%58.93%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.621.6564.10%61.93%61.73%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indiana Hoosiers (Local): 40.92%; Michigan St Spartans (Visit): 59.08%. For Indiana Hoosiers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +2.30%E +0.920%K +1.53%G +0.035% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.84%E -5.02%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -0.564%E -0.232%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -4.88%E -3.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 20:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.85%EV -0.564%E -0.232%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.15%EV -4.88%E -3.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-01 20:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -0.564%E -0.232%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -1.79%E -0.746%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-01 20:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.79%E -0.746%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.88%E -3.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 20:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.79%E -0.746%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.88%E -3.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 20:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -1.79%E -0.746%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-01 19:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.61%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.02%E -1.27%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-01 20:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.84%E -1.63%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.84%E -1.63%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -5.06%E -2.18%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 19:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.06%E -2.18%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.88%E -3.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 20:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.88%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 20:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.88%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 18:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.88%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.88%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 20:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.88%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 20:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.88%E -2.56%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 20:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 20:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.70%E -2.94%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-01 20:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -7.11%E -3.13%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.52%E -1.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.52%E -1.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.52%E -1.53%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-01 20:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 20:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-01 19:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 18:43 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -7.93%E -3.52%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 19:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.51%EV -8.34%E -3.72%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.49%EV -6.06%E -3.81%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 20:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -8.75%E -3.92%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -3.70%E -2.27%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-01 20:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -9.16%E -4.12%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -9.16%E -4.12%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.12%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -9.98%E -4.53%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -4.29%E -2.65%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -9.98%E -4.53%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.88%E -3.03%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-01 20:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -12.02%E -5.59%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-01 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -12.02%E -5.59%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.42%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-01 20:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-03-01 20:25 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-03-01 19:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39% | 1.0% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| Novig◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19% | 1.3% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44% | 2.8% | 2026-03-01 20:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44% | 2.8% | 2026-03-01 20:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.56% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.44% | 2.8% | 2026-03-01 20:35 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58% | 3.4% | 2026-03-01 20:39 |