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Illinois Fighting Illini v Oregon Ducks
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Illinois Fighting Illini (Local)
Prediction 92.08%1.09fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -66.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
90.50%91.90%92.06%93.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.041.041.05100.00%96.53%96.15%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Oregon Ducks (Visit)
Prediction 7.92%12.62fair odd
EV +10.89%
Edge +0.778%
Kelly +0.838%
Growth +0.091%
assuming max odds 14.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.91%8.10%7.94%9.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.4911.5014.0010.00%8.70%8.70%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illinois Fighting Illini (Local): 92.08%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 7.92%. For Oregon Ducks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.62. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +10.89%E +0.778%K +0.838%G +0.091% | 3.3% | 2026-03-04 00:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV +6.93%E +0.513%K +0.555%G +0.038% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 00:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.64%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 13.10I 7.63%NM 7.36%EV +3.76%E +0.287%K +0.311%G +0.012% | 3.8% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +2.97%E +0.229%K +0.248%G +0.007% | 3.8% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +2.97%E +0.229%K +0.248%G +0.007% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.08%E -5.96%K -303.97%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +2.97%E +0.229%K +0.248%G +0.007% | 5.7% | 2026-03-03 06:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.52%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.86I 7.78%NM 7.48%EV +1.86%E +0.145%K +0.157%G +0.003% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 00:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.52%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.86I 7.78%NM 7.48%EV +1.86%E +0.145%K +0.157%G +0.003% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 92.73%EV -7.92%E -7.92%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.27%EV +0.991%E +0.078%K +0.084%G +0.001% | 7.8% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 00:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 01:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -4.95%E -0.412%K -0.450%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-03 15:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV -8.91%E -0.775%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -8.91%E -0.775%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -8.91%E -0.775%K -0.849%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.54%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.46%EV -10.89%E -0.968%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.54%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.46%EV -10.89%E -0.968%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.54%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.46%EV -10.89%E -0.968%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.54%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.46%EV -10.89%E -0.968%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.58%EV -6.08%E -5.96%K -303.97%G +0.000% | 11.10I 9.01%NM 8.42%EV -12.08%E -1.09%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -12.87%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-04 01:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -12.87%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-04 00:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.87%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -12.87%E -1.17%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.32%E -3.16%K -66.34%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-04 00:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 01:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.24%E -4.07%K -105.94%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 01:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 01:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -5.16%E -5.01%K -171.95%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV -20.79%E -2.08%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-03 20:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 95.44% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.56% | -0.2% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.24% | 20.83I 4.80%NM 4.76% | 1.0% | 2026-03-04 01:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 94.07% | 16.67I 6.00%NM 5.93% | 1.2% | 2026-03-04 01:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 94.13% | 16.67I 6.00%NM 5.87% | 2.2% | 2026-03-04 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05% | 3.3% | 2026-03-04 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05% | 3.3% | 2026-03-04 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05% | 3.3% | 2026-03-04 01:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.83% | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.17% | 7.9% | 2026-03-04 01:55 |