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Illinois Fighting Illini v Michigan Wolverines
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Illinois Fighting Illini (Local)
Prediction 45.66%2.19fair odd
EV +0.454%
Edge +0.207%
Kelly +0.379%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 2.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%45.60%45.74%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.052.2050.00%48.45%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michigan Wolverines (Visit)
Prediction 54.34%1.84fair odd
EV -3.28%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -4.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.33%54.40%54.26%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.741.741.7858.82%57.52%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Illinois Fighting Illini (Local): 45.66%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 54.34%. For Illinois Fighting Illini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.454%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV +0.454%E +0.207%K +0.379%G +0.002% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -7.08%E -4.14%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -0.459%E -0.211%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -6.54%E -3.80%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.15%EV -1.83%E -0.851%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.85%EV -3.82%E -2.16%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-28 00:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.851%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 00:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.851%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 00:27 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -1.83%E -0.851%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 00:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.82%E -2.16%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.82%E -2.16%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 00:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 00:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.11%E -1.96%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%EV -4.57%E -2.19%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%EV -3.28%E -1.84%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 00:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.03%E -2.42%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.91%E -2.80%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -5.48%E -2.65%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -7.62%E -4.48%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-27 23:42 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.94%E -2.88%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.28%E -1.84%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.91%E -2.80%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.91%E -2.80%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.91%E -2.80%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-27 23:34 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.39%E -3.12%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-28 01:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -6.85%E -3.36%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -6.85%E -3.36%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -6.85%E -3.36%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -6.85%E -3.36%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.28%EV -7.76%E -3.84%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-28 00:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.40%EV -8.22%E -4.09%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -5.45%E -3.13%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-28 00:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -4.91%E -2.80%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-27 23:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.99%E -3.46%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.08%E -4.14%K -9.97%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-02-28 00:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.62%E -4.48%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.68%E -4.34%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.62%E -4.48%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 00:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94% | 0.4% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Novig◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.73% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.27% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 1.9% | 2026-02-28 00:59 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.0% | 2026-02-28 00:54 |