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California Golden Bears v SMU Mustangs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
California Golden Bears (Local)
Prediction 37.09%2.70fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.723%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.29%37.04%37.05%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.542.552.7542.19%39.30%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SMU Mustangs (Visit)
Prediction 62.91%1.59fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -3.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.24%62.96%62.95%64.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.521.531.5668.97%65.97%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: California Golden Bears (Local): 37.09%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 62.91%. For California Golden Bears (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV +1.99%E +0.723%K +1.14%G +0.023% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-26 02:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -1.72%E -0.650%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-26 02:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -2.09%E -0.793%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 02:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -2.83%E -1.08%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -8.78%E -6.05%K -19.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-02-26 02:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -3.58%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -3.11%E -2.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-26 00:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.58%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-25 22:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -3.58%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-25 22:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -3.58%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.37%E -2.88%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-25 23:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.58%E -1.38%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 02:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.38%EV -4.32%E -1.67%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.62%EV -3.11%E -2.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-25 23:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -4.32%E -1.67%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -4.69%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -1.85%E -1.19%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -4.69%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -1.85%E -1.19%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -4.69%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -7.52%E -5.11%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-26 02:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.85%E -1.19%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-25 23:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -7.52%E -5.11%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 02:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -7.52%E -5.11%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 02:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -5.43%E -2.13%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -7.52%E -5.11%K -15.99%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 02:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -3.11%E -2.02%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-25 23:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-25 23:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -7.28%E -2.91%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.37%E -2.88%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-26 02:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.44%EV -7.66%E -3.07%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.56%EV -6.26%E -4.20%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-26 02:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -8.03%E -3.24%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -5.00%E -3.31%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -8.03%E -3.24%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -5.00%E -3.31%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-25 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -9.14%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -3.74%E -2.45%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -9.14%E -3.73%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.37%E -2.88%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-25 20:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -12.11%E -5.11%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.24%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.76%EV -12.11%E -5.11%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.24%EV -5.63%E -3.75%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.38% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.62% | -0.2% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76% | 0.2% | 2026-02-26 02:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26% | 0.4% | 2026-02-26 02:55 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68% | 2.0% | 2026-02-26 02:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77% | 2.1% | 2026-02-26 01:35 |