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Baylor Bears v Arizona St Sun Devils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Baylor Bears (Local)
Prediction 74.69%1.34fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -6.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.32%74.63%74.68%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.281.3181.97%78.59%78.13%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit)
Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV +1.24%
Edge +0.309%
Kelly +0.412%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%25.37%25.32%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.704.0028.57%26.78%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Baylor Bears (Local): 74.69%; Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit): 25.31%. For Arizona St Sun Devils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +1.24%E +0.309%K +0.412%G +0.005% | 3.7% | 2026-02-21 18:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -5.89%E -4.67%K -22.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +1.24%E +0.309%K +0.412%G +0.005% | 4.4% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.88%E -7.28%K -40.35%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +1.24%E +0.309%K +0.412%G +0.005% | 7.0% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.30%EV -8.13%E -6.61%K -35.35%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.70%EV +0.225%E +0.057%K +0.076%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-02-21 18:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -0.028%E -0.007%K -0.010%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-21 20:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 17:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.24%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.76%EV -1.55%E -0.398%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 17:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.85%EV -3.65%E -2.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 25.15%EV -2.81%E -0.732%K -0.990%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 20:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.65%E -2.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.82%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 20:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.65%E -2.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.82%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 17:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.82%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-21 20:31 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.82%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 20:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.82%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 20:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.82%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 20:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.70%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.30%EV -4.33%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-21 16:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.26%EV -2.90%E -2.23%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -5.09%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.09%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.09%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 17:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -7.38%E -5.95%K -30.76%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -6.36%E -1.72%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.62%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.16%E -1.65%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -8.89%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.65%E -2.83%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.89%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 19:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -4.40%E -3.43%K -15.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -10.15%E -2.86%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-21 16:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.14%E -4.05%K -19.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 14:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.64%E -5.31%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.64%E -5.31%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.64%E -5.31%K -26.55%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.42%E -3.26%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-21 17:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.23% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 24.77% | -0.1% | 2026-02-21 20:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.24% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.76% | 1.5% | 2026-02-21 20:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53% | 1.7% | 2026-02-21 20:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.9% | 2026-02-21 20:05 |