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Air Force Falcons v UNLV Rebels
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Air Force Falcons (Local)
Prediction 9.06%11.03fair odd
EV +8.75%
Edge +0.729%
Kelly +0.796%
Growth +0.070%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.98%9.19%9.02%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.9510.0012.0011.11%10.05%10.00%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
UNLV Rebels (Visit)
Prediction 90.94%1.10fair odd
EV -3.61%
Edge -3.40%
Kelly -60.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.46%90.81%90.98%92.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.051.051.0698.04%95.17%95.24%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Air Force Falcons (Local): 9.06%; UNLV Rebels (Visit): 90.94%. For Air Force Falcons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.03. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +8.75%E +0.729%K +0.796%G +0.070% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 11.25I 8.89%NM 8.31%EV +1.96%E +0.174%K +0.191%G +0.004% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.69%EV -7.24%E -7.10%K -362.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-21 19:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.12I 8.99%NM 8.63%EV +0.779%E +0.070%K +0.077%G +0.001% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.37%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-21 19:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -0.309%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 17:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -0.309%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -0.309%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-21 19:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.309%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 17:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.309%E -0.028%K -0.031%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-21 12:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 10.79I 9.27%NM 8.95%EV -2.21%E -0.205%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.05%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 10.79I 9.27%NM 8.95%EV -2.21%E -0.205%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.05%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -4.84%E -0.461%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -4.84%E -0.461%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 18:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -4.84%E -0.461%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 19:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -4.84%E -0.461%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 18:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -4.84%E -0.461%K -0.510%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 10.05I 9.95%NM 9.30%EV -8.92%E -0.887%K -0.985%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.70%EV -6.33%E -6.15%K -211.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-21 19:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 02:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.52%E -4.30%K -90.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 17:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 18:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -9.37%E -0.937%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -13.90%E -1.46%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-02-21 00:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 18:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.61%E -3.40%K -60.11%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-21 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 09:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 09:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -18.43%E -2.05%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.43%E -5.22%K -135.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-02-21 17:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 15.28I 6.54%NM 6.54% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 93.46% | 0.0% | 2026-02-21 19:15 |
| Novig◎ | 11.90I 8.40%NM 8.32% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.68% | 1.0% | 2026-02-21 19:54 |
| Polymarket◎ | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14% | 1.6% | 2026-02-21 19:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.82% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.18% | 2.3% | 2026-02-21 19:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 10.70I 9.35%NM 9.09% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.91% | 2.8% | 2026-02-21 19:40 |