The School of Odds
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Perth Wildcats v S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 11:36 UTC

Final: Perth Wildcats 79–100 S.E. Melbourne Phoenix

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Perth Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 58.48%1.71fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.03%58.90%57.67%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.6865.36%62.54%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 41.52%2.41fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +1.52%
Kelly +2.53%
Growth +0.096%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%41.10%42.33%42.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.312.302.5045.87%43.31%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Perth Wildcats (Local): 58.48%; S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit): 41.52%. For S.E. Melbourne Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -10.53%E -6.88%K -19.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +3.80%E +1.52%K +2.53%G +0.096%5.4%2026-09-18 10:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -7.60%E -4.81%K -13.11%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -1.18%E -0.496%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 10:35
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.19%E -5.21%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.18%E -0.496%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 10:34
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.19%E -5.21%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.18%E -0.496%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 10:35
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.19%E -5.21%K -14.36%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.18%E -0.496%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 10:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -8.77%E -5.62%K -15.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -1.18%E -0.496%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 10:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.43%E -4.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.43%E -1.03%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 07:39
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.26%E -3.25%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.43%E -4.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 07:35
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.43%E -4.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.50%E -1.96%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 07:35
SportsBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.68%E -2.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.33%E -2.34%K -4.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-18 07:19
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.51%E -2.13%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.58%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 12:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.68%E -2.87%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.58%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 13:25
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.43%E -4.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.58%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 13:20
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -9.36%E -6.04%K -17.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.58%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 09:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -1.75%E -1.04%K -2.58%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -7.41%E -3.32%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 12:34
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.51%EV -4.09%E -2.50%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.49%EV -7.82%E -3.52%K -6.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-18 13:25
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -6.43%E -4.02%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -9.49%E -4.35%K -8.04%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 12:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 43.32%1.20I 83.33%NM 56.68%47.0%2026-09-18 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 43.32%1.20I 83.33%NM 56.68%47.0%2026-09-18 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 43.32%1.20I 83.33%NM 56.68%47.0%2026-09-18 14:30