The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Miami Heat v Detroit Pistons

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 01:00 UTC

Final: Miami Heat 101–87 Detroit Pistons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Heat (Local)

Prediction 38.41%2.60fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.531%
Kelly +0.855%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.29%38.10%38.61%39.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.492.462.6442.19%40.24%40.65%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Pistons (Visit)

Prediction 61.59%1.62fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -5.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.45%61.90%61.39%64.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.541.561.5769.44%64.81%64.10%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Miami Heat (Local): 38.41%; Detroit Pistons (Visit): 61.59%. For Miami Heat (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.29%EV +1.40%E +0.531%K +0.855%G +0.012%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.71%EV -11.31%E -7.85%K -25.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 00:50
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.133%E -0.051%K -0.083%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.62%E -5.08%K -15.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:55
Caesars🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -0.902%E -0.349%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -5.77%E -3.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 00:54
FanDuel🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -0.902%E -0.349%K -0.571%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -7.00%E -4.64%K -13.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 00:55
Fanatics🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.05%E -0.805%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.92%E -2.51%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-18 00:55
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -2.05%E -0.805%K -1.33%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -3.92%E -2.51%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-18 00:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 38.20%EV -2.44%E -0.960%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.80%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-18 00:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -2.82%E -1.12%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.2%2026-07-18 00:54
BetUS🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.97%E -1.59%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-18 00:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.97%E -1.59%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.92%E -2.51%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-18 00:55
ReBet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.65%EV -5.51%E -2.24%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.35%EV -4.54%E -2.93%K -8.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 00:55
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.90%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-17 22:47
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.90%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 00:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.90%E -2.41%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -7.00%E -4.64%K -13.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 00:55
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -6.28%E -2.57%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -3.92%E -2.51%K -7.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 00:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.82%E -3.26%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 00:15
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.82%E -3.26%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.30%E -2.10%K -5.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 00:15
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.82%E -3.26%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.54%E -2.93%K -8.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 23:55
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.82%E -3.26%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.77%E -3.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 00:50
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -7.82%E -3.26%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.38%EV -7.00%E -4.64%K -13.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-18 00:50
MyBookie.ag🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.39%EV -8.97%E -3.78%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.61%EV -5.15%E -3.35%K -9.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-18 00:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%0.9%2026-07-18 00:55
Novig◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%0.9%2026-07-18 00:55
ProphetX◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.47%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.53%1.9%2026-07-18 00:55