The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Philadelphia 76ers v Boston Celtics

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 23:10 UTC

Final: Philadelphia 76ers 120–125 Boston Celtics

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia 76ers (Local)

Prediction 78.17%1.28fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.48%
Kelly -12.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.15%78.17%78.48%80.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2484.75%82.26%81.97%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boston Celtics (Visit)

Prediction 21.83%4.58fair odd
EV +3.70%
Edge +0.778%
Kelly +0.986%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.90%21.83%21.52%24.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.264.204.7526.67%23.46%23.81%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Philadelphia 76ers (Local): 78.17%; Boston Celtics (Visit): 21.83%. For Boston Celtics (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.58. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -7.76%E -6.58%K -43.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +3.70%E +0.778%K +0.986%G +0.036%5.8%2026-10-16 23:00
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -7.76%E -6.58%K -43.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +2.61%E +0.554%K +0.704%G +0.018%6.0%2026-10-16 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -6.20%E -5.16%K -30.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +0.423%E +0.092%K +0.117%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:55
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -6.20%E -5.16%K -30.99%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -0.669%E -0.147%K -0.188%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -4.63%E -3.80%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -1.76%E -0.391%K -0.503%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 22:55
ReBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -6.20%E -5.16%K -30.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.76%E -0.391%K -0.503%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 23:00
Caesars🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.48%EV -4.63%E -3.80%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.52%EV -2.85%E -0.641%K -0.827%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 22:59
theScore Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -7.76%E -6.58%K -43.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.94%E -0.896%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 23:00
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.74%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.26%EV -5.47%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 22:55
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -6.13%E -1.42%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 23:00
picklebet_au🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.76%E -6.58%K -43.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -7.76%E -6.58%K -43.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -8.31%E -1.98%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 23:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:50
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:50
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:50
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:50
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 22:54
Pinnacle🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -4.63%E -3.80%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -10.49%E -2.56%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.63%E -3.80%K -21.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 22:59
Betsson🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -7.76%E -6.58%K -43.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -12.68%E -3.17%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -3.07%E -2.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -18.13%E -4.84%K -6.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-16 22:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21%0.2%2026-10-16 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%0.2%2026-10-16 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-10-16 23:05