The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Orlando Magic v Miami Heat

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 23:11 UTC

Final: Orlando Magic 136–115 Miami Heat

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orlando Magic (Local)

Prediction 70.51%1.42fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -7.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.09%70.46%70.82%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.351.3876.92%74.56%74.07%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Heat (Visit)

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd
EV +3.22%
Edge +0.920%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%29.54%29.18%30.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.213.153.5033.90%31.19%31.75%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orlando Magic (Local): 70.51%; Miami Heat (Visit): 29.49%. For Miami Heat (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +3.22%E +0.920%K +1.29%G +0.042%5.5%2026-10-16 23:05
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV +0.272%E +0.080%K +0.113%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-16 21:48
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -1.20%E -0.359%K -0.512%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-16 21:45
Caesars🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -1.20%E -0.359%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-16 23:04
ReBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -1.20%E -0.359%K -0.512%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 22:55
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.81%E -3.57%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 21:45
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -7.63%E -5.83%K -24.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -2.68%E -0.811%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 23:00
picklebet_au🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.63%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-16 23:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.63%E -1.76%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-16 23:04
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -4.81%E -3.57%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.87%EV -6.51%E -2.05%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -3.40%E -2.48%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 22:45
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:45
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -7.10%E -2.25%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 22:45
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -4.81%E -3.57%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -7.99%E -2.56%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 22:55
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.70%E -1.96%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 21:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 22:30
Bet Right🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 22:30
Fliff🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.58%E -2.77%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-16 23:05
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -13.00%E -4.41%K -6.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 22:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-10-16 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-10-16 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.74%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.26%1.7%2026-10-16 23:05