Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Phoenix Suns v Golden State Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 02:14 UTC

Final: Phoenix Suns 131–122 Golden State Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

66 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

77%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Phoenix Suns (Local)

Prediction 76.97%1.30fair odd

EV -2.25%

Edge -1.77%

Kelly -8.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

74.51%77.02%76.99%79.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.231.241.2784.75%81.22%80.65%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 23.03%4.34fair odd

EV +8.24%

Edge +1.75%

Kelly +2.23%

Growth +0.184%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.47%22.98%23.01%25.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.454.154.164.7028.99%24.10%24.07%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Suns (Local): 76.97%; Golden State Warriors (Visit): 23.03%. For Golden State Warriors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -6.87%E -5.67%K -32.70%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV +8.24%E +1.75%K +2.23%G +0.184%	3.9%	2026-10-25 02:10
SportsBet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -6.87%E -5.67%K -32.70%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV +8.24%E +1.75%K +2.23%G +0.184%	3.9%	2026-10-25 02:10
Neds🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.64%E -6.36%K -38.18%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%	5.1%	2026-10-25 02:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.64%E -6.36%K -38.18%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%	5.1%	2026-10-25 02:09
betano_uk🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV +1.33%E +0.303%K +0.392%G +0.005%	2.7%	2026-10-25 01:49
Bet Victor🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12%EV +1.33%E +0.303%K +0.392%G +0.005%	2.7%	2026-10-25 01:50
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +1.33%E +0.303%K +0.392%G +0.005%	3.4%	2026-10-25 02:00
BetAnything🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +1.33%E +0.303%K +0.392%G +0.005%	4.7%	2026-10-24 20:22
1xBet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.86%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.36I 22.94%NM 22.14%EV +0.410%E +0.094%K +0.122%G +0.001%	3.6%	2026-10-24 23:40
BetMGM🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -0.281%E -0.065%K -0.084%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-25 02:10
Paddy Power🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.64%E -6.36%K -38.18%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -0.281%E -0.065%K -0.084%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-25 02:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.64%E -6.36%K -38.18%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -0.281%E -0.065%K -0.084%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-25 02:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.972%E -0.226%K -0.294%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-25 02:05
Fanatics🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.12%E -0.500%K -0.653%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-25 00:40
Betr (AU)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.12%E -0.500%K -0.653%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-24 20:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.12%E -0.500%K -0.653%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-10-24 20:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 76.91%EV -2.25%E -1.77%K -8.33%G +0.000%	4.23I 23.64%NM 23.09%EV -2.58%E -0.611%K -0.800%G +0.000%	2.4%	2026-10-25 02:00
LowVig.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.11%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.21I 23.75%NM 22.89%EV -3.04%E -0.723%K -0.948%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-24 20:05
Coolbet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-24 20:40
BetUS🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-24 20:05
Codere (IT)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-25 01:25
DraftKings🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-25 02:05
TAB🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-25 00:00
theScore Bet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-25 00:00
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.33%E -4.33%K -23.16%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-25 00:20
888sport🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 01:25
William Hill🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 01:25
888sport (SE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 01:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 01:25
ReBet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 02:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 02:10
Coral🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.27%E -0.780%K -1.02%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-25 02:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -4.20%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-24 20:05
GTbets🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -4.43%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-25 00:04
Fliff🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-24 20:35
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
BetRivers🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
Unibet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
betPARX🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
Bally Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
Svenska Spel🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
ATG (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:10
Bet Right🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-25 01:54
BoyleSports🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.58%E -1.36%K -1.80%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-25 01:54
Bovada🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -6.73%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-25 02:09
picklebet_au🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -6.73%E -1.66%K -2.21%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-25 01:59
Dabble (AU)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.02%E -2.39%K -11.61%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-24 20:35
Caesars🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -3.02%E -2.39%K -11.61%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:10
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-25 02:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-25 01:50
TABtouch🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.56%E -3.68%K -18.99%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-25 02:05
Virgin Bet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -5.33%E -4.33%K -23.16%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-25 02:05
Betway🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-25 02:00
Betsson🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.87%E -5.67%K -32.70%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-24 23:30
NordicBet🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.78%EV -6.87%E -5.67%K -32.70%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-10-25 00:04
Marathon Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.54%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	3.98I 25.13%NM 23.46%EV -8.34%E -2.10%K -2.80%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-10-25 02:04
LeoVegas🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.40%EV -6.10%E -5.00%K -27.71%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -9.03%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-10-25 02:05
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.47%EV -7.64%E -6.36%K -38.18%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -10.18%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-10-25 02:00
PMU (FR)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 76.39%EV -8.41%E -7.06%K -44.24%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -11.33%E -2.94%K -3.98%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-10-25 02:05
Sky Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.79%E -3.03%K -15.15%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-24 22:50
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 75.91%EV -8.41%E -7.06%K -44.24%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.09%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-10-25 02:00
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 75.41%EV -8.41%E -7.06%K -44.24%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 24.59%EV -15.94%E -4.37%K -6.02%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-10-25 02:04
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 74.51%EV -9.18%E -7.78%K -50.97%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 25.49%EV -20.55%E -5.96%K -8.39%G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-10-25 02:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85%	4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15%	0.3%	2026-10-25 02:10
ProphetX◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.66%	4.45I 22.47%NM 22.34%	0.6%	2026-10-25 02:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%	0.9%	2026-10-25 02:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%	0.9%	2026-10-25 01:50
Polymarket◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%	1.1%	2026-10-24 20:05
Kalshi◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%	1.1%	2026-10-24 21:05
Novig◎	1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%	4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%	1.1%	2026-10-25 02:10
Smarkets◎	1.26I 79.37%NM 77.74%	4.40I 22.73%NM 22.26%	2.1%	2026-10-25 02:10
Matchbook◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%	4.4%	2026-10-25 02:10
BetOpenly◎	1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%	4.4%	2026-10-25 01:40