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Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Oklahoma City Thunder (Local)
Prediction 68.60%1.46fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -6.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.59%68.54%68.65%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4275.19%72.08%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Nuggets (Visit)
Prediction 31.40%3.18fair odd
EV +3.63%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%31.46%31.35%33.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.033.053.3036.36%32.96%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Oklahoma City Thunder (Local): 68.60%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 31.40%. For Denver Nuggets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.63%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.76%E -6.59%K -26.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.63%E +1.10%K +1.58%G +0.057% | 5.5% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -1.08%E -0.344%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-02-28 02:36 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.08%E -0.344%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.08%E -0.344%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.08%E -0.344%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.08%E -0.344%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -6.02%E -4.39%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -1.08%E -0.344%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 02:32 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.01%EV -3.28%E -2.32%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.99%EV -1.40%E -0.446%K -0.654%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.67%EV -2.03%E -0.650%K -0.956%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-28 02:28 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.02%E -4.39%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:34 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.71%E -4.93%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 02:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.71%E -4.93%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.65%E -0.856%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 02:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.60%E -1.17%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -2.59%E -1.82%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.28%E -2.32%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 02:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.65%E -3.34%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.71%E -4.93%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 02:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.71%E -4.93%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.71%E -4.93%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 02:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -6.71%E -4.93%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 02:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -8.08%E -6.03%K -23.76%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -8.76%E -6.59%K -26.56%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-28 02:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -3.28%E -2.32%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -4.54%E -1.49%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.59%E -1.82%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.59%E -1.82%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.59%E -1.82%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -3.28%E -2.32%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -3.28%E -2.32%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.02%E -4.39%K -16.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.39%E -5.48%K -21.12%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.80%E -1.93%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.37%E -2.50%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.37%E -2.50%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.37%E -2.50%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.37%E -2.50%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.94%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.94%E -3.08%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.56%E -3.32%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.56%E -3.32%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -3.96%E -2.83%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -10.51%E -3.69%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -10.51%E -3.69%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -5.33%E -3.87%K -14.04%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -13.65%E -4.96%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-02-28 02:38 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.60% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 31.40% | -0.2% | 2026-02-28 02:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-02-28 02:39 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.85% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 31.15% | 1.6% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 2.2% | 2026-02-28 02:40 |