The School of Odds
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Minnesota Timberwolves v San Antonio Spurs

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 23:42 UTC

Final: Minnesota Timberwolves 114–109 San Antonio Spurs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

62 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Timberwolves (Local)

Prediction 36.47%2.74fair odd
EV +0.287%
Edge +0.104%
Kelly +0.164%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%36.44%36.42%38.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.642.652.7541.15%37.90%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Antonio Spurs (Visit)

Prediction 63.53%1.57fair odd
EV -0.890%
Edge -0.570%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.10%63.56%63.58%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.501.501.5670.92%66.83%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Timberwolves (Local): 36.47%; San Antonio Spurs (Visit): 63.53%. For Minnesota Timberwolves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.287%.

Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -5.34%E -3.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 23:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -5.34%E -3.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 23:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -5.34%E -3.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 23:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.14%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.86%EV -5.34%E -3.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 23:39
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.51%E -5.91%K -19.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 20:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.51%E -5.91%K -19.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 20:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.51%E -5.91%K -19.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 20:09
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.287%E +0.104%K +0.164%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.51%E -5.91%K -19.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 20:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-10 20:09
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 23:39
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 23:39
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 23:39
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 23:39
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.61%E -4.50%K -14.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.61%E -4.50%K -14.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.54%E -0.569%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.61%E -4.50%K -14.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:39
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.26%EV -1.90%E -0.707%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.74%EV -2.80%E -1.83%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-10 23:40
theScore Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.49%EV -2.27%E -0.846%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.51%EV -2.16%E -1.40%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-10 22:24
ReBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -2.27%E -0.846%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-10 20:09
SportsBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.97%EV -2.63%E -0.985%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.03%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 23:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -3.43%E -2.26%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 23:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -3.43%E -2.26%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-10 23:29
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.07%E -2.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-10 23:34
GTbets🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.07%E -2.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-10 23:25
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-10 23:39
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-10 23:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-10 22:19
Bet Victor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-10 23:18
MyBookie.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.34%E -3.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 20:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.34%E -3.58%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 20:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 23:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.36%E -1.27%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.88%E -5.43%K -17.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 23:39
DraftKings🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.72%E -1.41%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.07%E -2.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 21:44
BetUS🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -4.09%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -2.80%E -1.83%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-10 23:34
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -4.09%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 23:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.22%EV -4.09%E -1.55%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.78%EV -9.15%E -6.40%K -21.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 23:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 37.26%EV -4.82%E -1.85%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.74%EV -1.53%E -0.984%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-10 23:39
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -0.890%E -0.570%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-10 22:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -1.53%E -0.984%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-10 23:39
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.80%E -1.83%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-10 23:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.80%E -1.83%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-10 23:20
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.43%E -2.26%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 23:38
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.43%E -2.26%K -6.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-10 23:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.07%E -2.69%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 22:29
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:39
NordicBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:19
Betsson🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 23:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 23:20
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-10 23:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.61%E -4.50%K -14.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-10 19:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.88%E -5.43%K -17.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 23:30
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -5.18%E -1.99%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -10.42%E -7.39%K -25.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 23:39
Caesars🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 37.23%EV -5.91%E -2.29%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.77%EV -2.80%E -1.83%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-10 23:38
BetAnything🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -0.890%E -0.570%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-10 23:34
Paddy Power🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 23:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 23:35
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 23:28
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.01%E -2.75%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.70%E -3.13%K -9.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 23:30
Bet Right🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -8.83%E -3.53%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -3.43%E -2.26%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 23:30
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -10.65%E -4.35%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -0.890%E -0.570%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 23:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -11.38%E -4.68%K -7.96%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.15%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-10 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.53%-0.0%2026-05-10 23:20
ProphetX◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.94%1.56I 64.10%NM 64.06%0.1%2026-05-10 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-05-10 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-05-10 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-05-10 23:35
Matchbook◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%0.5%2026-05-10 23:34
Novig◎2.73I 36.63%NM 36.36%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.64%0.7%2026-05-10 23:39
Polymarket◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%0.9%2026-05-10 13:10
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.87%1.0%2026-05-10 23:40
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.32%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.68%2.0%2026-05-10 23:35