The School of Odds
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Memphis Grizzlies v Golden State Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 00:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (23 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Memphis Grizzlies (Local)

Prediction 38.63%2.59fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.591%
Kelly -0.972%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.04%38.61%38.61%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.462.452.5543.10%40.58%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Golden State Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 61.37%1.63fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -3.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.25%61.39%61.39%62.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.561.6066.67%64.31%64.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Memphis Grizzlies (Local): 38.63%; Golden State Warriors (Visit): 61.37%. For Memphis Grizzlies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.26%EV -1.51%E -0.591%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.74%EV -3.03%E -1.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-26 00:39
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -1.51%E -0.591%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.9%2026-02-26 00:39
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.51%E -0.591%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -5.48%E -3.56%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-26 00:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -1.51%E -0.591%K -0.972%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -7.94%E -5.29%K -15.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-26 00:40
SportsBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.99%EV -2.28%E -0.901%K -1.49%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.01%EV -4.87%E -3.14%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 00:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -3.03%E -1.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-26 00:40
FanDuel🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-26 00:40
Caesars🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.66%E -1.06%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-26 00:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.63%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.37%EV -3.03%E -1.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-26 00:39
BetAnything🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-26 00:40
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.02%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.98%EV -1.80%E -1.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-26 00:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:40
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:39
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:39
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:39
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.48%E -3.56%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 00:30
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.48%E -3.56%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 00:39
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 00:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 00:40
Fliff🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.44%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 00:39
Coolbet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 00:38
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 00:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 00:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 00:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-26 00:40
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:40
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-26 00:29
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -4.98%E -2.03%K -3.41%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -2.41%E -1.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-26 00:39
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.41%E -1.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-26 00:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.03%E -1.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:39
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.03%E -1.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.03%E -1.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-02-26 00:40
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 00:40
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 00:40
Bally Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-26 00:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.87%E -3.14%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.87%E -3.14%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:29
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.37%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -5.75%E -2.36%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 00:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -5.75%E -2.36%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-26 00:39
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-26 00:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -4.87%E -3.14%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-26 00:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -6.53%E -2.70%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-26 00:33
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%EV -6.53%E -2.70%K -4.60%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.58%EV -7.32%E -4.85%K -14.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-26 00:31
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.30%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-26 00:30
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.30%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-26 00:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.30%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-26 00:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.30%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.87%E -3.14%K -8.85%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-26 00:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.30%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.48%E -3.56%K -10.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-26 00:39
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-26 00:39
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.10%E -3.98%K -11.50%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-26 00:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%EV -10.39%E -4.48%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.57%EV -7.32%E -4.85%K -14.36%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-26 00:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.56%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.44%0.1%2026-02-26 00:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-02-26 00:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-02-26 00:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-02-26 00:40
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-02-26 00:40
BetOpenly◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.58%0.9%2026-02-26 00:29
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%0.9%2026-02-26 00:40
Polymarket◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32%0.9%2026-02-26 00:40
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.44%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.56%1.2%2026-02-26 00:40
Novig◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.13%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.87%1.7%2026-02-26 00:40