The School of Odds
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Indiana Pacers v Denver Nuggets

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 22:13 UTC

Final: Indiana Pacers 102–114 Denver Nuggets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

67 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Indiana Pacers (Local)

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV +0.463%
Edge +0.127%
Kelly +0.175%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.41%27.66%27.62%29.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.413.453.6532.79%29.32%28.99%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Nuggets (Visit)

Prediction 72.48%1.38fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.44%72.34%72.38%73.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.311.311.3680.65%76.06%76.34%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indiana Pacers (Local): 27.52%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 72.48%. For Indiana Pacers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.463%.

Sportsbook Odds (67 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV +0.463%E +0.127%K +0.175%G +0.001%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.59%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-07 17:54
DraftKings🎯3.61I 27.70%NM 26.63%EV -0.638%E -0.177%K -0.244%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.37%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-07 17:55
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 21:55
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 21:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 18:35
theScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 19:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 19:10
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-07 17:55
Fliff🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-07 21:55
Caesars🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -0.913%E -0.254%K -0.351%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-07 21:55
GTbets🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -2.29%E -0.645%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-07 21:50
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -2.29%E -0.645%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-11-07 21:55
BetAnything🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -2.29%E -0.645%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-11-07 20:10
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.29%E -0.645%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-07 21:50
Pinnacle🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.61%EV -2.56%E -0.724%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.39%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.3%2026-11-07 21:50
Bet Victor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.88%E -2.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-07 22:10
betano_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.88%E -2.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-07 22:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.69%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.88%E -2.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-07 22:10
Everygame🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.61%E -2.71%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-07 17:56
TAB🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-07 19:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-07 22:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-07 21:15
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -5.06%E -3.86%K -16.31%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-07 21:45
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 17:54
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 17:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-07 17:54
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.51%E -5.04%K -22.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 21:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.23%E -5.65%K -25.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-07 17:55
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.67%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -7.23%E -5.65%K -25.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-07 17:59
LowVig.ag🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 27.80%EV -4.22%E -1.21%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.20%EV -2.88%E -2.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-11-07 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.61%E -2.71%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-07 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.82%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.18%EV -3.61%E -2.71%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-07 21:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-07 17:55
Neds🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.04%E -1.46%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-07 18:00
MyBookie.ag🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.43%EV -5.32%E -1.55%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.57%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-07 21:20
Dabble (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.61%E -2.71%K -10.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-07 21:40
picklebet_au🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-07 22:10
ReBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-07 22:10
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 21:50
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 21:15
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 21:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 21:50
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.42%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-07 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -6.97%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -6.51%E -5.04%K -22.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 22:05
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.33%E -3.28%K -13.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-07 22:10
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-07 21:45
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -9.17%E -2.78%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-07 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -1.43%E -1.05%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-07 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -1.43%E -1.05%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-07 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -1.43%E -1.05%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-07 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -1.43%E -1.05%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-07 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 22:00
TABtouch🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 22:00
Unibet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 22:00
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 22:00
betPARX🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 22:00
Bally Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -2.16%E -1.60%K -6.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-07 22:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -10.55%E -3.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -10.13%E -8.17%K -42.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-11-07 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -2.88%E -2.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-07 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.61%E -2.71%K -10.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-07 22:00
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -11.92%E -3.73%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -5.78%E -4.45%K -19.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-07 22:10
PMU (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -14.68%E -4.73%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.62%EV -6.51%E -5.04%K -22.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-07 22:00
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -16.05%E -5.26%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -7.23%E -5.65%K -25.82%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-07 22:10
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -16.05%E -5.26%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.60%EV -7.96%E -6.26%K -29.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-07 22:09
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.07%EV -16.05%E -5.26%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.93%EV -9.41%E -7.52%K -37.62%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-07 21:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43%0.3%2026-11-07 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-11-07 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-11-07 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-11-07 21:55
ProphetX◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-11-07 22:10
Matchbook◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%0.6%2026-11-07 21:55
Novig◎3.77I 26.53%NM 26.37%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.63%0.6%2026-11-07 22:10
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-11-07 22:00
Polymarket◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%1.1%2026-11-07 22:10
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 27.00%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.00%1.5%2026-11-07 22:10

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