The School of Odds
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Golden State Warriors v Denver Nuggets

2026-12-26 03:30 UTC — NBA

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Golden State Warriors (Local)

Prediction 46.63%2.14fair odd
EV -0.219%
Edge -0.102%
Kelly -0.192%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.85%46.63%46.60%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.042.1452.36%49.48%49.02%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Nuggets (Visit)

Prediction 53.37%1.87fair odd
EV -0.192%
Edge -0.103%
Kelly -0.220%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%53.37%53.40%55.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.801.791.8757.47%55.71%55.87%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Golden State Warriors (Local): 46.63%; Denver Nuggets (Visit): 53.37%. For Denver Nuggets (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.874. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.870, with an expected value of -0.192%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -0.219%E -0.102%K -0.192%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 16:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.48%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.48%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.48%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.48%E -1.68%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 16:34
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.42%E -2.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-11 16:20
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -4.42%E -2.15%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.46%E -2.49%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-11 16:29
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.88%E -2.39%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 16:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.88%E -2.39%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 16:35
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.88%E -2.39%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.00%E -2.81%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-11 16:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.46%EV -4.88%E -2.39%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.54%EV -5.53%E -3.12%K -7.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-11 16:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -5.81%E -2.88%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.06%E -3.44%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-11 16:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -6.75%E -3.37%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.13%E -4.10%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 16:34
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -7.68%E -3.88%K -7.84%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -0.725%E -0.390%K -0.844%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-11 14:49
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -8.15%E -4.13%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -0.192%E -0.103%K -0.220%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-11 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.33%E -1.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 14:54
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.33%E -1.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.94%E -5.73%K -12.03%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.33%E -1.27%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-11 15:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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