La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Žalgiris v FC Bayern München
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Žalgiris (Local)
Predicción 74.57%1.34momio equitativo
EV -1.57%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -4.90%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.32
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
71.05%74.51%74.66%76.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.221.271.261.3281.97%78.79%79.37%75.76%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
FC Bayern München (Visitante)
Predicción 25.43%3.93momio equitativo
EV +4.26%
Ventaja +1.04%
Kelly +1.37%
Crecimiento +0.059%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.30%25.49%25.34%28.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.193.753.754.1031.35%26.67%26.67%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
1 corredor ofrece un número de opciones distinto para este mercado (3 vías, frente al formato de 2 vías empleado en el análisis). Esta disparidad exige interpretar los resultados con cautela.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.26%E +1.04%K +1.37%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.26%E +1.04%K +1.37%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.26%E +1.04%K +1.37%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:39 |
| Unibet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.26%E +1.04%K +1.37%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:44 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.26%E +1.04%K +1.37%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:39 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.26%E +1.04%K +1.37%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:40 |
| SportsBet | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -8.28%E -6.73%K -35.99%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV +2.99%E +0.738%K +0.980%G +0.029% | 6.0% | 2026-03-24 16:39 |
| William Hill | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -6.04%E -4.79%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV +1.72%E +0.429%K +0.572%G +0.010% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 17:19 |
| 888sport | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.72%E +0.429%K +0.572%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-03-24 17:14 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.72%E +0.429%K +0.572%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-03-24 17:14 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.72%E +0.429%K +0.572%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-03-24 17:14 |
| BetRivers | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.72%E +0.429%K +0.572%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-03-24 17:39 |
| FanDuel | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -7.53%E -6.07%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV +1.72%E +0.429%K +0.572%G +0.010% | 5.6% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -7.53%E -6.07%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV +0.446%E +0.113%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-03-24 17:39 |
| TABtouch | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -7.53%E -6.07%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV +0.446%E +0.113%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 6.0% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -5.30%E -4.17%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -0.826%E -0.212%K -0.285%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
| ReBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.04%E -4.79%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.10%E -0.545%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
| Betsson | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.04%E -4.79%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.10%E -0.545%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 16:14 |
| NordicBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.04%E -4.79%K -23.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.10%E -0.545%K -0.736%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-24 16:15 |
| Betway | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.80%E -2.95%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 17:14 |
| BoyleSports | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
| theScore Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-24 12:20 |
| Bovada | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.80%E -2.95%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-24 17:38 |
| Fanatics | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-24 16:39 |
| Paddy Power | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -9.02%E -7.40%K -41.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-24 16:14 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.10%EV -3.06%E -2.35%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.90%EV -5.40%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 17:55 |
| Coolbet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.55%E -3.55%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-24 17:43 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -7.53%E -6.07%K -31.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-24 17:49 |
| DraftKings | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.31%E -1.77%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-24 17:08 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.06%E -2.35%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-24 17:25 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.30%E -4.17%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-23 23:00 |
| GTbets | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.87%EV -5.30%E -4.17%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.13%EV -8.71%E -2.43%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-24 13:10 |
| 1xBet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.06%EV -1.57%E -1.19%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.94%EV -8.96%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-24 16:34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%EV -1.57%E -1.19%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%EV -9.47%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 13:09 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%EV -1.57%E -1.19%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%EV -9.47%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-24 13:09 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.10%EV -2.31%E -1.77%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 26.90%EV -9.47%E -2.66%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-24 16:35 |
| Everygame | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -4.55%E -3.55%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -9.73%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-24 17:00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.96%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.15%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -9.73%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-24 17:29 |
| BetMGM | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -2.31%E -1.77%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-24 17:55 |
| PlayUp | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.55%E -3.55%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
| TAB | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -5.30%E -4.17%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-24 17:44 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.55%E -3.55%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-24 17:04 |
| Neds | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -3.80%E -2.95%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -16.08%E -4.87%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-24 17:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -3.80%E -2.95%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -16.08%E -4.87%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-24 17:54 |
| Coral | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -4.55%E -3.55%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -16.08%E -4.87%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-24 17:54 |
| BetUS | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.05%EV -3.06%E -2.35%K -10.19%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 28.95%EV -18.88%E -5.92%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-24 17:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.3% | 2026-03-24 17:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.3% | 2026-03-24 17:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07% | 1.3% | 2026-03-24 17:45 |
| Smarkets | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62% | 2.8% | 2026-03-24 17:55 |
| Matchbook | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24% | 3.1% | 2026-03-24 17:40 |
Otros corredores — no incluidos en el análisis (1)
Estos corredores ofrecen un número de opciones distinto para el mercado y, por ello, quedan excluidos del análisis. Sus momios se muestran únicamente como referencia: las reglas de liquidación de esas apuestas pueden ser diferentes e introducen incertidumbre adicional.
| Corredor | Opción 1 | Opción 2 | Opción 3 | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.58% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.94% | 12.2% | 2026-03-24 17:55 |