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Real Madrid v Hapoel Tel Aviv
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Madrid (Local)
Prediction 72.65%1.38fair odd
EV +0.977%
Edge +0.703%
Kelly +2.50%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.33%72.30%72.92%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3981.97%76.71%76.92%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit)
Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.586%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%27.70%27.08%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.413.503.6035.09%29.29%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 72.65%; Hapoel Tel Aviv (Visit): 27.35%. For Real Madrid (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.38. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.977%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV +0.977%E +0.703%K +2.50%G +0.024% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -13.83%E -4.39%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV +0.250%E +0.181%K +0.659%G +0.002% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.67%EV -14.65%E -4.70%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -1.20%E -0.884%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -11.10%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.80%EV -1.93%E -1.43%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.20%EV -14.65%E -4.70%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 00:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -3.38%E -2.54%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.83%E -3.69%K -15.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-24 01:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -2.89%E -0.814%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 08:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 17:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 00:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-24 00:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.56%E -4.28%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -6.29%E -4.87%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -1.52%E -0.423%K -0.586%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.29%E -4.87%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -6.29%E -4.87%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -6.99%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 06:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -6.29%E -4.87%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -11.10%E -3.41%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 18:03 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -7.01%E -5.48%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-22 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -7.01%E -5.48%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-21 20:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -7.01%E -5.48%K -25.05%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.71%EV -8.63%E -2.59%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-22 18:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.74%E -6.09%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-22 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.02%EV -11.37%E -9.32%K -51.69%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.98%EV -22.04%E -7.73%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-04-22 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68% | 72.2% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68% | 72.2% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 55.32% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 44.68% | 72.2% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |