Language:English
Real Madrid v FC Bayern München
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Real Madrid (Local)
Prediction 82.39%1.21fair odd
EV -0.314%
Edge -0.260%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.92%82.20%82.32%84.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.141.2190.09%87.11%87.72%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Bayern München (Visit)
Prediction 17.61%5.68fair odd
EV +10.09%
Edge +1.61%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.194%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%17.80%17.68%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.005.365.406.2525.00%18.66%18.52%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 82.39%; FC Bayern München (Visit): 17.61%. For FC Bayern München (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.68. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.09%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV +7.45%E +1.22%K +1.46%G +0.109% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.66%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 5.89I 16.98%NM 16.34%EV +3.75%E +0.637%K +0.767%G +0.029% | 3.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 3.4% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -7.73%E -6.90%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +1.29%E +0.224%K +0.271%G +0.003% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +1.29%E +0.224%K +0.271%G +0.003% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:43 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.73%E -6.90%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.73%E -6.90%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -8.55%E -7.71%K -77.75%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -4.88%E -0.904%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -4.88%E -0.904%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.64%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -10.16%E -1.99%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -10.16%E -1.99%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -10.16%E -1.99%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-26 19:43 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -1.96%E -1.65%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -1.96%E -1.65%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -1.96%E -1.65%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.37%EV -14.22%E -2.92%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -16.33%E -3.44%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -18.97%E -4.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -20.73%E -4.61%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -20.73%E -4.61%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -0.314%E -0.260%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -27.78%E -6.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -1.14%E -0.948%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -29.54%E -7.39%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16% | 4.1% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30% | 10.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |