L’École des cotesFrançais
Real Madrid v FC Bayern München
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Real Madrid (Local)
Prévision 82.39%1.21cote équitable
EV -0.314%
Avantage -0.260%
Kelly -1.50%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.21
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
76.92%82.20%82.32%84.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.111.151.141.2190.09%87.11%87.72%82.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
FC Bayern München (Visiteur)
Prévision 17.61%5.68cote équitable
EV +10.09%
Avantage +1.61%
Kelly +1.92%
Croissance +0.194%
avec la cote maximale 6.25
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.31%17.80%17.68%23.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.005.365.406.2525.00%18.66%18.52%16.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
1 opérateur propose un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (3 issues, contre le format 2 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.
Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +10.09%E +1.61%K +1.92%G +0.194% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| FanDuel | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV +7.45%E +1.22%K +1.46%G +0.109% | 4.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Pinnacle | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.66%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 5.89I 16.98%NM 16.34%EV +3.75%E +0.637%K +0.767%G +0.029% | 3.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| 1xBet | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 3.4% | 2026-02-26 19:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| BetRivers | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 5.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| TABtouch | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -7.73%E -6.90%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +2.17%E +0.374%K +0.451%G +0.010% | 6.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| NordicBet | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +1.29%E +0.224%K +0.271%G +0.003% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Betsson | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV +1.29%E +0.224%K +0.271%G +0.003% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:43 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -1.36%E -0.242%K -0.295%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Betway | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Bovada | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BoyleSports | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Everygame | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Fanatics | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.73%E -6.90%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Paddy Power | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.73%E -6.90%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| theScore Bet | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -8.55%E -7.71%K -77.75%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -3.12%E -0.567%K -0.693%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -4.88%E -0.904%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| SportsBet | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -4.88%E -0.904%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -6.64%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| DraftKings | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -7.52%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Coolbet | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -10.16%E -1.99%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Parions Sport (FR) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -10.16%E -1.99%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.86%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.14%EV -10.16%E -1.99%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-26 19:43 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -1.96%E -1.65%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -1.96%E -1.65%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| 888sport | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.08%E -5.33%K -43.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -11.93%E -2.39%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| William Hill | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -1.96%E -1.65%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.26%EV -6.90%E -6.11%K -53.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -13.69%E -2.79%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| GTbets | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.37%EV -14.22%E -2.92%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| TAB | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -4.43%E -3.82%K -27.71%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -15.45%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BetUS | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -5.26%E -4.57%K -35.05%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -16.33%E -3.44%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| PlayUp | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -18.97%E -4.12%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -20.73%E -4.61%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Neds | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -3.61%E -3.09%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -20.73%E -4.61%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| BetMGM | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -0.314%E -0.260%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -27.78%E -6.78%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Coral | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -1.14%E -0.948%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -29.54%E -7.39%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 0.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Smarkets | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32% | 2.1% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |
| Matchbook | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16% | 4.1% | 2026-02-26 19:45 |
Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (1)
Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.
| Opérateur | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.88% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.30% | 10.9% | 2026-02-26 19:44 |